Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Jack Perkins vs Kade Anderson · 61°F

2.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Athletics win

31.4%

Seattle Mariners win

68.6%

Fair line (home)

-219

Proj. total

7.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.10)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.61)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.71

Over

46.4%

Under

53.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	31.4%	+187	+219
Seattle Mariners	68.6%	-206	-219

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jack Perkins RHP · Athletics	3.1	3.1	3.0	1.5	1.5
Kade Anderson LHP · Seattle Mariners	5.0	5.8	4.1	1.1	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Jack Perkins4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Kade Anderson4+ 86%6+ 54%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.696	.165	.020	.109	.280	1.552	.235	.293	.361	.654
Zack Gelof	4.5	.575	.164	.012	.147	.321	1.446	.219	.281	.372	.654
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.545	.160	.014	.129	.372	1.274	.214	.284	.358	.642
Jonah Heim	4.3	.571	.145	.004	.112	.248	.985	.209	.261	.332	.594
Jeff McNeil	4.2	.689	.171	.016	.074	.297	.637	.250	.314	.362	.676
Michael Stefanic	4.0	.693	.148	.004	.041	.344	.676	.244	.322	.321	.643
Brian Serven	3.9	.471	.123	.009	.080	.260	1.364	.188	.249	.293	.542
Alika Williams	3.8	.580	.159	.012	.053	.204	.937	.225	.274	.320	.594
Max Muncy	3.7	.453	.129	.016	.092	.203	1.268	.201	.257	.329	.585

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.651	.188	.009	.148	.532	1.083	.255	.367	.420	.788
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.657	.191	.011	.196	.424	.981	.262	.338	.461	.798
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.721	.181	.013	.199	.393	.889	.284	.359	.488	.847
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.460	.126	.003	.220	.582	1.204	.222	.337	.440	.777
Josh Naylor	4.2	.718	.177	.003	.133	.423	.584	.278	.358	.435	.794
Cole Young	4.1	.664	.157	.030	.104	.390	.658	.264	.345	.410	.755
Lazaro Montes	4.0	.443	.130	.011	.184	.391	1.366	.217	.301	.417	.718
J.P. Crawford	3.8	.566	.149	.003	.076	.549	.733	.244	.360	.361	.721
Brock Rodden	3.7	.515	.143	.017	.101	.275	1.058	.228	.292	.369	.661

Data notes: home starter Kade Anderson: only 9 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kade Anderson: only 32 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections