Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Jeffrey Springs vs George Kirby · 63°F

0.8% edge · Seattle Mariners

Athletics win

31.4%

Seattle Mariners win

68.6%

Fair line (home)

-218

Proj. total

8.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.45)Seattle Mariners (mean 5.01)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.46

Over

54.2%

Under

45.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	31.4%	+203	+218
Seattle Mariners	68.6%	-225	-218

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jeffrey Springs LHP · Athletics	4.8	4.2	5.4	2.0	2.9
George Kirby RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.9	5.7	5.5	1.1	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Jeffrey Springs4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

George Kirby4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.763	.180	.027	.123	.241	1.396	.255	.306	.395	.701
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.788	.205	.014	.089	.249	.557	.263	.315	.382	.697
Zack Gelof	4.4	.614	.175	.010	.151	.277	1.262	.233	.287	.392	.679
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.610	.168	.012	.144	.321	1.129	.236	.296	.394	.690
Jonah Heim	4.2	.601	.149	.003	.121	.224	.833	.222	.268	.353	.622
Max Muncy	4.1	.561	.165	.017	.115	.199	1.253	.224	.272	.367	.639
Donovan Walton	4.0	.609	.150	.012	.084	.276	.711	.235	.297	.352	.649
Alika Williams	3.8	.610	.177	.019	.062	.170	.818	.238	.279	.349	.628
Denzel Clarke	3.7	.517	.142	.025	.078	.215	1.258	.220	.275	.343	.618

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.687	.204	.009	.201	.491	1.004	.274	.369	.479	.848
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.684	.185	.013	.232	.365	.899	.271	.334	.491	.825
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.766	.186	.011	.234	.329	.861	.297	.356	.523	.879
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.478	.136	.001	.276	.501	1.136	.237	.332	.494	.826
Josh Naylor	4.2	.759	.182	.003	.171	.348	.537	.292	.356	.476	.832
J.P. Crawford	4.1	.651	.151	.004	.104	.530	.734	.258	.360	.392	.752
Taylor Ward	4.0	.554	.154	.009	.146	.530	.853	.253	.359	.431	.790
Cole Young	3.9	.642	.143	.026	.119	.328	.580	.266	.337	.425	.762
Weston Wilson	3.8	.488	.122	.008	.143	.355	1.047	.226	.304	.394	.698

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections