Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Kade Morris vs Logan Gilbert · 61°F

1.6% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

34.8%

Seattle Mariners win

65.1%

Fair line (home)

-187

Proj. total

8.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.39)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.64)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.03

Over

49.4%

Under

38.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	34.8%	+194	+187
Seattle Mariners	65.1%	-214	-187

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kade Morris RHP · Athletics	3.4	2.4	3.8	1.2	1.8
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.7	6.1	4.9	1.3	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Kade Morris4+ 21%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Logan Gilbert4+ 89%6+ 59%8+ 26%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.706	.168	.024	.124	.264	1.529	.240	.295	.378	.672
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.750	.185	.013	.093	.282	.653	.252	.310	.371	.681
Zack Gelof	4.4	.551	.162	.010	.155	.313	1.391	.218	.281	.379	.660
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.554	.161	.012	.145	.363	1.240	.223	.292	.382	.674
Carlos Cortes	4.2	.560	.174	.010	.122	.292	.964	.225	.285	.371	.655
Jonah Heim	4.1	.550	.132	.002	.125	.245	.918	.213	.265	.348	.612
Max Muncy	4.0	.509	.146	.015	.110	.205	1.336	.211	.263	.349	.612
Donovan Walton	3.8	.559	.133	.012	.079	.302	.781	.225	.295	.338	.632
Alika Williams	3.7	.565	.162	.015	.063	.187	.891	.231	.278	.340	.617

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.694	.209	.010	.154	.481	.921	.270	.373	.445	.818
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.720	.198	.013	.184	.365	.847	.273	.338	.463	.801
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.778	.190	.011	.186	.333	.799	.292	.356	.486	.842
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.487	.135	.004	.225	.527	1.054	.229	.333	.450	.783
Josh Naylor	4.2	.753	.181	.003	.132	.341	.497	.281	.347	.434	.781
Cole Young	4.1	.702	.155	.027	.099	.341	.570	.268	.341	.405	.746
J.P. Crawford	4.0	.636	.156	.004	.075	.524	.667	.256	.363	.371	.734
Lazaro Montes	3.9	.466	.130	.012	.194	.363	1.197	.232	.313	.446	.759
Brock Rodden	3.7	.535	.151	.018	.091	.254	.933	.231	.292	.365	.658

Data notes: away starter Kade Morris: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kade Morris: only 36 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections