Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Cal Quantrill vs Bryce Miller · 65°F

0.6% edge · Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers win

44.5%

Seattle Mariners win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.11)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.53

Over

45.6%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	44.5%	+117	+124
Seattle Mariners	55.5%	-127	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cal Quantrill RHP · Texas Rangers	3.2	2.6	3.4	1.2	1.6
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	4.8	4.8	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Cal Quantrill4+ 26%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Bryce Miller4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.7	.600	.135	.019	.228	.491	1.126	.235	.325	.440	.765
Corey Seager	4.6	.656	.183	.003	.205	.478	.978	.255	.337	.450	.787
Ezequiel Duran	4.5	.703	.200	.026	.111	.264	1.097	.247	.298	.386	.684
Brandon Nimmo	4.4	.670	.174	.016	.138	.375	1.008	.250	.322	.405	.727
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.591	.174	.019	.155	.457	.974	.246	.332	.422	.754
Evan Carter	4.2	.556	.154	.026	.101	.410	1.017	.223	.307	.359	.666
Jake Burger	4.1	.549	.148	.005	.179	.254	1.081	.231	.288	.414	.702
Nicky Lopez	4.0	.708	.120	.023	.018	.280	.678	.237	.298	.297	.596
Danny Jansen	3.9	.424	.137	.012	.118	.373	.985	.201	.289	.351	.640

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.671	.198	.009	.157	.455	.980	.260	.357	.432	.789
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.690	.180	.013	.191	.351	.879	.263	.326	.453	.779
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.739	.188	.009	.188	.322	.844	.281	.342	.473	.816
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.467	.128	.003	.233	.520	1.103	.224	.326	.449	.775
J.P. Crawford	4.2	.652	.162	.004	.084	.530	.736	.251	.353	.368	.721
Josh Naylor	4.1	.717	.173	.003	.130	.333	.518	.277	.342	.430	.773
Cole Young	4.0	.637	.142	.026	.104	.318	.597	.254	.325	.395	.721
Lazaro Montes	3.8	.433	.122	.010	.190	.344	1.224	.218	.295	.424	.719
Brock Rodden	3.7	.509	.138	.021	.090	.233	.973	.221	.277	.352	.629

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections