Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Gage Jump vs Bryan Woo · 65°F

0.3% edge · Seattle Mariners

Athletics win

35.6%

Seattle Mariners win

64.4%

Fair line (home)

-181

Proj. total

8.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.42)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.59)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.01

Over

48.9%

Under

39.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	35.6%	+173	+181
Seattle Mariners	64.4%	-189	-181

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Gage Jump LHP · Athletics	5.0	5.1	5.0	2.4	2.5
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	6.0	5.0	1.1	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Gage Jump4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Bryan Woo4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.728	.171	.024	.128	.259	1.470	.246	.301	.388	.689
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.775	.192	.013	.092	.262	.605	.258	.313	.377	.690
Zack Gelof	4.4	.581	.169	.010	.163	.298	1.337	.228	.287	.396	.683
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.555	.162	.011	.147	.343	1.213	.223	.288	.382	.670
Carlos Cortes	4.2	.581	.180	.010	.130	.276	.912	.232	.289	.385	.674
Max Muncy	4.1	.531	.148	.019	.120	.209	1.328	.215	.267	.359	.626
Donovan Walton	4.0	.597	.141	.012	.084	.289	.761	.231	.297	.346	.644
Alika Williams	3.8	.594	.159	.017	.064	.174	.892	.229	.271	.336	.607
Brian Serven	3.7	.459	.121	.007	.091	.216	1.231	.196	.251	.314	.566

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.648	.195	.008	.169	.552	1.111	.258	.368	.440	.808
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.667	.183	.013	.197	.422	1.003	.261	.335	.458	.793
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.733	.180	.011	.188	.380	.969	.280	.350	.472	.823
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.455	.131	.002	.235	.555	1.239	.223	.332	.450	.781
J.P. Crawford	4.2	.642	.152	.004	.093	.614	.815	.251	.367	.375	.742
Josh Naylor	4.1	.710	.174	.002	.133	.393	.587	.277	.353	.434	.787
Weston Wilson	4.0	.503	.121	.007	.124	.424	1.201	.214	.304	.357	.661
Michael Arroyo	3.9	.585	.153	.015	.102	.294	.851	.245	.319	.385	.704
Jhonny Pereda	3.8	.659	.155	.005	.063	.379	.815	.264	.344	.370	.714

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections