Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Cristian Javier vs Logan Gilbert · 64°F

0.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros win

43.9%

Seattle Mariners win

56.1%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

8.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 3.86)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.08

Over

49.8%

Under

38.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	43.9%	+120	+128
Seattle Mariners	56.1%	-130	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cristian Javier RHP · Houston Astros	3.8	3.8	3.6	1.8	1.9
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	6.1	4.9	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Cristian Javier4+ 54%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Logan Gilbert4+ 87%6+ 58%8+ 26%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.721	.180	.015	.142	.217	1.109	.243	.290	.389	.679
Yordan Alvarez	4.5	.647	.194	.009	.231	.576	.932	.278	.379	.510	.889
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.577	.158	.009	.162	.432	.820	.231	.323	.400	.724
Jose Altuve	4.3	.680	.154	.013	.124	.292	.948	.242	.299	.379	.677
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.704	.171	.008	.144	.157	.840	.254	.287	.407	.694
Christian Walker	4.1	.475	.139	.005	.165	.288	1.198	.207	.273	.377	.651
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.417	.126	.020	.125	.356	1.368	.190	.269	.339	.608
Cam Smith	3.9	.493	.114	.034	.119	.257	1.155	.212	.273	.362	.635
Brice Matthews	3.8	.436	.092	.021	.106	.251	1.371	.188	.249	.318	.567

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.5	.612	.148	.003	.116	.639	.951	.229	.346	.360	.705
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.561	.157	.007	.170	.519	1.121	.236	.348	.416	.763
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.571	.154	.017	.201	.380	1.019	.241	.313	.442	.756
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.383	.106	.002	.241	.572	1.257	.203	.319	.433	.752
Julio Rodríguez	4.1	.621	.154	.008	.187	.350	.954	.261	.333	.457	.790
Josh Naylor	4.0	.650	.150	.003	.145	.367	.604	.262	.336	.426	.761
Cole Young	3.9	.574	.133	.024	.112	.359	.715	.242	.323	.390	.712
Lazaro Montes	3.8	.362	.103	.009	.201	.380	1.384	.200	.287	.415	.701
Brock Rodden	3.7	.436	.121	.015	.099	.279	1.124	.200	.269	.333	.602

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections