Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 10, 2026 · Jacob deGrom vs Logan Gilbert · 66°F

1.3% edge · Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers win

47.7%

Seattle Mariners win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

7.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 3.81)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.74)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.55

Over

44.5%

Under

43.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	47.7%	+111	+110
Seattle Mariners	52.3%	-121	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.2	6.3	4.4	1.4	1.9
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	6.1	4.9	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Jacob deGrom4+ 90%6+ 62%8+ 29%

Logan Gilbert4+ 88%6+ 58%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.7	.560	.130	.016	.213	.447	1.258	.221	.308	.414	.722
Corey Seager	4.6	.640	.175	.004	.196	.427	1.079	.247	.324	.435	.759
Ezequiel Duran	4.5	.667	.200	.029	.109	.239	1.191	.240	.289	.380	.669
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.639	.167	.020	.128	.333	1.085	.240	.307	.389	.696
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.552	.170	.020	.149	.414	1.071	.235	.316	.408	.724
Evan Carter	4.2	.524	.140	.030	.098	.362	1.114	.212	.290	.344	.634
Jake Burger	4.0	.534	.147	.008	.167	.216	1.179	.227	.276	.402	.679
Nicky Lopez	3.9	.671	.117	.022	.018	.256	.757	.229	.286	.288	.574
Danny Jansen	3.8	.404	.126	.010	.118	.339	1.054	.193	.277	.340	.617

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.4	.655	.155	.004	.091	.473	1.077	.229	.317	.339	.656
Randy Arozarena	4.3	.577	.169	.006	.148	.372	1.240	.232	.315	.393	.708
Dominic Canzone	4.3	.601	.160	.011	.179	.291	1.105	.242	.298	.425	.723
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.408	.120	.002	.213	.435	1.345	.202	.292	.410	.702
Julio Rodríguez	4.0	.643	.154	.009	.168	.257	1.039	.260	.313	.440	.752
Josh Naylor	3.9	.658	.151	.002	.124	.278	.674	.258	.315	.403	.717
Cole Young	3.8	.587	.136	.023	.099	.267	.765	.242	.303	.378	.682
Lazaro Montes	3.7	.384	.109	.009	.178	.288	1.427	.201	.268	.396	.665
Brock Rodden	3.6	.469	.119	.019	.081	.197	1.144	.206	.256	.326	.582

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections