Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Bryan Woo · 72°F

0.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Angels win

36.7%

Seattle Mariners win

63.3%

Fair line (home)

-173

Proj. total

7.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.46)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.94

Over

48.2%

Under

40.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	36.7%	+166	+173
Seattle Mariners	63.3%	-182	-173

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grayson Rodriguez RHP · Los Angeles Angels	5.0	5.0	4.9	2.0	2.4
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.6	6.5	5.0	1.3	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Grayson Rodriguez4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Bryan Woo4+ 91%6+ 65%8+ 32%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.584	.174	.020	.183	.285	1.389	.227	.292	.408	.699
Mike Trout	4.5	.549	.148	.006	.192	.543	1.387	.229	.331	.417	.749
Wade Meckler	4.4	.785	.163	.011	.054	.341	.984	.252	.315	.338	.653
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.662	.181	.004	.107	.239	.913	.239	.292	.367	.659
Moisés Ballesteros	4.2	.648	.151	.006	.119	.265	.931	.237	.290	.371	.661
Denzer Guzman	4.1	.561	.152	.009	.129	.213	1.208	.221	.267	.366	.633
Josh Lowe	4.0	.538	.151	.011	.131	.256	1.232	.225	.279	.378	.657
Christian Moore	3.9	.502	.122	.025	.089	.289	1.299	.209	.275	.333	.608
Bryce Teodosio	3.7	.498	.111	.023	.063	.152	1.270	.196	.240	.294	.534

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.688	.156	.003	.109	.606	.904	.243	.351	.368	.719
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.624	.182	.007	.165	.491	1.067	.254	.360	.434	.794
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.658	.171	.021	.195	.369	.965	.263	.331	.464	.795
Cal Raleigh	4.3	.429	.127	.003	.246	.539	1.224	.219	.325	.455	.780
Julio Rodríguez	4.2	.678	.173	.011	.179	.329	.908	.276	.343	.470	.813
Josh Naylor	4.0	.705	.166	.003	.138	.340	.575	.276	.343	.435	.778
Cole Young	3.9	.632	.139	.022	.103	.339	.669	.253	.330	.392	.722
Lazaro Montes	3.8	.402	.116	.010	.193	.372	1.350	.210	.293	.419	.712
Leo Rivas	3.7	.486	.126	.021	.070	.385	.973	.216	.311	.332	.644

Data notes: 19/20 lineup+starter talents from projections