Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Reid Detmers vs Bryce Miller · 72°F

4.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Angels win

44.5%

Seattle Mariners win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

7.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.67)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.56

Over

56.5%

Under

43.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	44.5%	+102	+125
Seattle Mariners	55.5%	-110	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Reid Detmers LHP · Los Angeles Angels	5.3	6.0	4.8	1.8	2.1
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	5.6	4.6	1.6	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Reid Detmers4+ 87%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Bryce Miller4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 19%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.584	.180	.023	.185	.351	1.346	.230	.302	.414	.717
Mike Trout	4.6	.556	.148	.006	.196	.651	1.322	.235	.353	.428	.781
Wade Meckler	4.5	.796	.160	.011	.064	.415	.963	.256	.330	.349	.679
Vaughn Grissom	4.4	.688	.185	.004	.117	.283	.880	.247	.305	.382	.687
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.663	.162	.006	.122	.331	.876	.244	.308	.383	.690
Josh Lowe	4.2	.552	.164	.010	.135	.321	1.239	.226	.289	.381	.670
Christian Moore	4.0	.526	.130	.026	.096	.356	1.314	.213	.288	.341	.629
Travis d'Arnaud	3.9	.472	.144	.005	.118	.241	1.190	.203	.262	.342	.604
Bryce Teodosio	3.8	.519	.120	.024	.061	.171	1.262	.202	.246	.299	.545

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.589	.183	.007	.162	.471	1.242	.240	.342	.414	.756
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.611	.161	.020	.190	.356	1.132	.244	.311	.435	.746
Julio Rodríguez	4.3	.672	.162	.008	.190	.327	1.070	.262	.327	.453	.780
Josh Naylor	4.2	.696	.170	.003	.138	.336	.686	.262	.327	.415	.743
Michael Arroyo	4.1	.577	.144	.022	.111	.293	1.002	.229	.300	.369	.669
Cole Young	4.0	.614	.141	.028	.106	.342	.774	.247	.323	.390	.714
Jhonny Pereda	3.9	.629	.151	.006	.062	.363	.956	.243	.320	.343	.662
Weston Wilson	3.8	.442	.107	.007	.123	.353	1.242	.200	.280	.344	.624
Leo Rivas	3.6	.471	.084	.009	.045	.466	1.150	.196	.312	.272	.584

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections