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2.6% edge · St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds
July 10, 2026 · Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy · 74°F
Atlanta Braves win
57.4%
St. Louis Cardinals win
42.6%
Fair line (home)
+135
Proj. total
8.39
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.66)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.73)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.39
Over
42.0%
Under
50.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 57.4% | -158 | -135 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 42.6% | +145 | +135 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 4.9 | .909 | .219 | .025 | .182 | .232 | .845 | .290 | .328 | .467 | .795 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.8 | .828 | .209 | .012 | .128 | .362 | .599 | .271 | .334 | .413 | .747 |
| Matt Olson | 4.6 | .659 | .215 | .008 | .212 | .575 | .970 | .272 | .368 | .487 | .855 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.5 | .758 | .157 | .013 | .168 | .446 | .787 | .271 | .350 | .441 | .791 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.4 | .834 | .199 | .017 | .074 | .259 | .510 | .272 | .319 | .382 | .700 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 4.3 | .576 | .164 | .021 | .129 | .510 | .904 | .236 | .333 | .393 | .726 |
| Austin Riley | 4.2 | .643 | .167 | .015 | .149 | .353 | 1.045 | .255 | .326 | .424 | .750 |
| Dominic Smith | 4.1 | .711 | .154 | .015 | .098 | .331 | .694 | .263 | .329 | .391 | .720 |
| Jim Jarvis | 4.0 | .680 | .156 | .021 | .039 | .330 | .659 | .248 | .318 | .335 | .654 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.5 | .732 | .162 | .007 | .122 | .365 | .948 | .252 | .331 | .386 | .717 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.4 | .683 | .157 | .010 | .119 | .429 | 1.010 | .252 | .350 | .391 | .742 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.3 | .632 | .171 | .009 | .154 | .289 | 1.343 | .242 | .301 | .405 | .706 |
| Nelson Velázquez | 4.2 | .497 | .138 | .009 | .161 | .322 | 1.409 | .209 | .277 | .375 | .653 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.1 | .682 | .171 | .010 | .144 | .278 | .769 | .266 | .324 | .430 | .753 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.0 | .656 | .163 | .018 | .081 | .265 | .912 | .248 | .307 | .368 | .675 |
| José Fermín | 3.9 | .604 | .170 | .005 | .070 | .352 | .668 | .244 | .325 | .356 | .681 |
| Blaze Jordan | 3.8 | .603 | .171 | .014 | .096 | .181 | .648 | .248 | .291 | .384 | .676 |
| Pedro Pagés | 3.7 | .507 | .120 | .008 | .095 | .200 | 1.115 | .214 | .266 | .337 | .602 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections