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Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Chris Sale vs Kyle Leahy · 74°F
2.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals
Atlanta Braves win
57.4%
St. Louis Cardinals win
42.6%
Fair line (home)
+135
Proj. total
8.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%16%036912151821242730Runs scored
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.66)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.73)

Totals

O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.39
Over
42.0%
Under
50.0%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Atlanta Braves57.4%-158-135
St. Louis Cardinals42.6%+145+135

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Michael Harris II4.9.909.219.025.182.232.845.290.328.467.795
Ozzie Albies4.8.828.209.012.128.362.599.271.334.413.747
Matt Olson4.6.659.215.008.212.575.970.272.368.487.855
Drake Baldwin4.5.758.157.013.168.446.787.271.350.441.791
Mauricio Dubón4.4.834.199.017.074.259.510.272.319.382.700
Mike Yastrzemski4.3.576.164.021.129.510.904.236.333.393.726
Austin Riley4.2.643.167.015.149.3531.045.255.326.424.750
Dominic Smith4.1.711.154.015.098.331.694.263.329.391.720
Jim Jarvis4.0.680.156.021.039.330.659.248.318.335.654

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
JJ Wetherholt4.5.732.162.007.122.365.948.252.331.386.717
Iván Herrera4.4.683.157.010.119.4291.010.252.350.391.742
Jordan Walker4.3.632.171.009.154.2891.343.242.301.405.706
Nelson Velázquez4.2.497.138.009.161.3221.409.209.277.375.653
Alec Burleson4.1.682.171.010.144.278.769.266.324.430.753
Masyn Winn4.0.656.163.018.081.265.912.248.307.368.675
José Fermín3.9.604.170.005.070.352.668.244.325.356.681
Blaze Jordan3.8.603.171.014.096.181.648.248.291.384.676
Pedro Pagés3.7.507.120.008.095.2001.115.214.266.337.602
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections