Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs Dustin May · 73°F

1.9% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

44.4%

St. Louis Cardinals win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.46)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.82)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.29

Over

52.5%

Under

39.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	44.4%	+131	+125
St. Louis Cardinals	55.6%	-142	-125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.8	.729	.209	.046	.162	.479	1.258	.265	.344	.447	.791
Sal Stewart	4.7	.735	.225	.003	.166	.446	.923	.266	.342	.438	.779
JJ Bleday	4.6	.582	.190	.015	.172	.578	.986	.239	.339	.422	.761
Eugenio Suárez	4.5	.539	.160	.003	.205	.391	1.365	.224	.305	.417	.722
Nathaniel Lowe	4.4	.660	.157	.010	.127	.520	1.061	.248	.341	.392	.734
Spencer Steer	4.3	.599	.183	.013	.137	.437	.908	.245	.333	.409	.742
Tyler Stephenson	4.2	.612	.163	.004	.112	.422	1.095	.239	.324	.376	.699
Dane Myers	4.1	.684	.151	.005	.083	.335	1.015	.250	.321	.361	.682
Edwin Arroyo	4.0	.685	.144	.037	.060	.215	.776	.251	.302	.358	.660

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.818	.185	.008	.143	.507	.697	.281	.373	.434	.807
Jordan Walker	4.6	.718	.204	.009	.200	.401	1.097	.273	.343	.471	.813
Alec Burleson	4.5	.792	.199	.012	.184	.391	.597	.294	.362	.485	.847
Iván Herrera	4.4	.733	.166	.013	.147	.529	.731	.285	.391	.456	.847
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.623	.163	.019	.135	.617	.806	.259	.371	.426	.797
Masyn Winn	4.2	.720	.181	.021	.091	.347	.694	.268	.337	.399	.736
Nathan Church	4.1	.714	.152	.019	.098	.282	.660	.263	.322	.393	.715
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.691	.183	.018	.106	.245	.497	.272	.322	.418	.740
Jimmy Crooks	3.8	.557	.135	.009	.110	.345	1.065	.236	.314	.377	.692

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections