Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Reynaldo López vs Matthew Liberatore · 77°F

1.2% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

50.5%

St. Louis Cardinals win

49.5%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.56)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.33)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.89

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	50.5%	-101	-102
St. Louis Cardinals	49.5%	-107	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.8	.888	.219	.027	.205	.216	.860	.293	.329	.487	.816
Ozzie Albies	4.7	.791	.209	.007	.142	.323	.615	.266	.325	.416	.741
Matt Olson	4.6	.643	.206	.006	.233	.539	1.012	.271	.362	.499	.862
Drake Baldwin	4.5	.740	.154	.011	.181	.423	.798	.271	.347	.450	.796
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.833	.198	.016	.081	.263	.519	.275	.323	.390	.713
Austin Riley	4.3	.642	.171	.014	.157	.355	1.084	.254	.324	.427	.750
Eli White	4.2	.656	.134	.032	.108	.284	.990	.242	.302	.378	.680
Joey Bart	4.0	.622	.133	.008	.104	.370	1.088	.240	.324	.368	.691
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.595	.173	.012	.088	.230	.998	.236	.284	.361	.645

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.758	.167	.008	.142	.463	.805	.263	.350	.412	.763
Iván Herrera	4.5	.729	.158	.011	.143	.526	.868	.268	.371	.425	.796
Alec Burleson	4.4	.747	.185	.011	.172	.344	.680	.276	.338	.455	.793
Jordan Walker	4.3	.637	.184	.007	.177	.340	1.137	.256	.320	.441	.761
Lars Nootbaar	4.2	.604	.161	.014	.120	.536	.886	.246	.347	.397	.744
Masyn Winn	4.1	.676	.175	.018	.093	.319	.776	.256	.321	.387	.708
Bryan Torres	4.0	.706	.145	.019	.053	.438	.768	.261	.345	.357	.702
Blaze Jordan	3.9	.648	.179	.015	.104	.221	.564	.260	.308	.403	.711
Nathan Church	3.8	.628	.135	.018	.090	.227	.688	.249	.301	.374	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections