Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · JR Ritchie vs Dustin May · 87°F

0.1% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Atlanta Braves win

46.1%

St. Louis Cardinals win

53.9%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.60)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.82)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.42

Over

50.2%

Under

49.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	46.1%	+112	+117
St. Louis Cardinals	53.9%	-122	-117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.798	.170	.014	.196	.443	.913	.271	.347	.452	.799
Ozzie Albies	4.7	.794	.207	.012	.137	.348	.659	.266	.329	.415	.744
Matt Olson	4.6	.632	.213	.008	.225	.543	1.068	.268	.360	.492	.852
Michael Harris II	4.5	.822	.208	.024	.183	.208	.829	.290	.329	.479	.808
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.839	.213	.014	.085	.249	.559	.279	.324	.399	.724
Dominic Smith	4.3	.733	.163	.015	.105	.341	.778	.260	.328	.391	.719
Austin Riley	4.2	.636	.167	.015	.145	.337	1.117	.254	.323	.421	.744
Jim Jarvis	4.1	.700	.164	.019	.040	.324	.742	.249	.317	.336	.653
Brewer Hicklen	4.0	.538	.126	.021	.118	.301	1.220	.224	.297	.369	.666

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.809	.183	.008	.146	.501	.741	.279	.372	.434	.806
Iván Herrera	4.6	.755	.176	.012	.141	.558	.808	.278	.388	.437	.825
Jordan Walker	4.5	.706	.196	.009	.190	.395	1.105	.271	.342	.464	.806
Alec Burleson	4.4	.775	.187	.013	.176	.375	.614	.290	.358	.477	.836
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.631	.169	.016	.134	.594	.836	.260	.368	.425	.792
Masyn Winn	4.2	.712	.174	.019	.095	.339	.728	.264	.332	.395	.727
Nathan Church	4.1	.716	.148	.019	.111	.281	.678	.266	.324	.404	.729
José Fermín	4.0	.624	.182	.006	.076	.439	.506	.257	.351	.379	.730
Jimmy Crooks	3.8	.553	.142	.009	.111	.344	1.087	.236	.314	.378	.693

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections