Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs Kyle Leahy · 101°F

0.7% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds win

44.4%

St. Louis Cardinals win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

10.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.84)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.17)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.01

Over

60.3%

Under

39.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	44.4%	+118	+125
St. Louis Cardinals	55.6%	-127	-125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.9	.797	.208	.049	.177	.502	1.152	.284	.363	.477	.839
Spencer Steer	4.8	.683	.210	.014	.169	.495	.909	.255	.341	.432	.774
JJ Bleday	4.7	.610	.213	.017	.199	.579	.899	.256	.353	.465	.818
Eugenio Suárez	4.5	.581	.166	.005	.228	.407	1.248	.241	.320	.451	.771
Nathaniel Lowe	4.4	.695	.167	.012	.150	.541	.983	.264	.358	.430	.787
Dane Myers	4.3	.753	.167	.006	.102	.372	.983	.262	.333	.386	.718
Noelvi Marte	4.2	.738	.184	.016	.146	.277	.807	.277	.330	.444	.774
Jose Trevino	4.1	.718	.173	.005	.101	.243	.566	.259	.308	.386	.694
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.0	.720	.155	.024	.077	.277	.678	.265	.321	.383	.704

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.795	.183	.006	.187	.490	.704	.284	.370	.467	.837
Iván Herrera	4.6	.763	.174	.013	.193	.552	.774	.291	.391	.489	.879
Jordan Walker	4.5	.697	.194	.009	.243	.380	1.060	.282	.347	.514	.861
Alec Burleson	4.4	.765	.179	.013	.224	.362	.578	.298	.361	.519	.879
Masyn Winn	4.3	.730	.183	.024	.121	.347	.719	.273	.338	.426	.765
José Fermín	4.2	.668	.174	.006	.107	.457	.508	.262	.352	.402	.755
Nelson Velázquez	4.0	.519	.145	.009	.217	.390	1.041	.245	.322	.469	.791
Blaze Jordan	3.9	.682	.182	.015	.135	.245	.494	.277	.326	.445	.771
Pedro Pagés	3.8	.592	.137	.007	.145	.272	.918	.251	.310	.418	.728

Data notes: game-time temp 101F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections