Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Hunter Greene vs Andre Pallante · 90°F

2.2% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds win

47.8%

St. Louis Cardinals win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.81

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.92)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.89)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.81

Over

57.6%

Under

35.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	47.8%	-104	+109
St. Louis Cardinals	52.2%	-104	-109

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.9	.832	.231	.057	.159	.496	1.059	.292	.369	.480	.849
Sal Stewart	4.8	.801	.262	.004	.164	.460	.763	.287	.361	.464	.825
JJ Bleday	4.7	.650	.218	.017	.176	.574	.845	.260	.354	.451	.805
Eugenio Suárez	4.6	.624	.183	.004	.205	.421	1.181	.248	.328	.445	.773
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.704	.199	.005	.111	.470	.998	.256	.340	.393	.733
Noelvi Marte	4.4	.780	.197	.018	.129	.273	.779	.277	.328	.429	.757
TJ Friedl	4.3	.701	.159	.022	.086	.424	.679	.258	.346	.382	.727
Edwin Arroyo	4.1	.777	.167	.045	.060	.233	.686	.272	.321	.385	.707
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.0	.737	.165	.027	.068	.285	.629	.269	.325	.382	.708

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.742	.161	.007	.182	.504	.893	.268	.365	.445	.810
Jordan Walker	4.6	.663	.181	.009	.231	.393	1.301	.261	.333	.476	.809
Alec Burleson	4.5	.737	.181	.011	.227	.374	.763	.285	.352	.503	.854
Iván Herrera	4.4	.665	.152	.011	.170	.539	.926	.270	.382	.454	.836
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.585	.147	.016	.166	.596	.979	.251	.362	.438	.800
Masyn Winn	4.2	.669	.170	.020	.113	.356	.860	.259	.331	.404	.736
Bryan Torres	4.1	.697	.141	.018	.071	.495	.852	.262	.357	.373	.730
Blaze Jordan	3.9	.634	.182	.016	.136	.251	.632	.265	.318	.435	.753
Nathan Church	3.8	.635	.133	.016	.114	.254	.757	.255	.313	.399	.711

Data notes: away starter Hunter Greene: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hunter Greene: only 26 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections