Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Colin Rea vs Michael McGreevy · 90°F

5.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs win

46.3%

St. Louis Cardinals win

53.7%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

10.24

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.02)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.22)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.24

Over

51.8%

Under

37.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	46.3%	-110	+116
St. Louis Cardinals	53.7%	+101	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.809	.228	.052	.208	.302	.970	.285	.337	.495	.832
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.765	.230	.018	.194	.440	1.008	.279	.349	.475	.824
Michael Busch	4.7	.714	.206	.035	.187	.478	.918	.275	.358	.477	.835
Alex Bregman	4.6	.775	.198	.013	.142	.424	.512	.275	.349	.433	.782
Ian Happ	4.5	.654	.196	.020	.151	.492	.991	.259	.346	.433	.779
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.919	.226	.013	.051	.267	.299	.298	.349	.398	.747
Michael Conforto	4.3	.632	.193	.009	.141	.407	.888	.256	.334	.422	.757
Carson Kelly	4.1	.704	.152	.010	.124	.351	.641	.263	.332	.409	.741
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.778	.164	.028	.068	.218	.625	.274	.319	.386	.706

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.837	.197	.007	.167	.457	.657	.288	.372	.458	.829
Jordan Walker	4.6	.769	.216	.011	.225	.358	1.025	.288	.349	.503	.852
Alec Burleson	4.5	.821	.209	.014	.211	.342	.556	.303	.362	.513	.876
Iván Herrera	4.4	.779	.169	.012	.168	.489	.698	.297	.394	.480	.874
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.677	.173	.018	.159	.550	.751	.275	.373	.459	.833
Masyn Winn	4.2	.763	.190	.022	.102	.323	.664	.280	.343	.421	.764
Nathan Church	4.1	.764	.158	.020	.120	.254	.599	.279	.331	.425	.756
José Fermín	4.0	.659	.190	.007	.087	.419	.448	.269	.357	.401	.758
Jimmy Crooks	3.9	.593	.142	.010	.135	.315	1.005	.250	.321	.412	.733

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections