Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · David Peterson vs Matthew Liberatore · 98°F

4.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs win

48.3%

St. Louis Cardinals win

51.7%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

10.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.05)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.06)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.11

Over

49.8%

Under

50.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	48.3%	-117	+107
St. Louis Cardinals	51.7%	+108	-107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.747	.210	.051	.222	.368	1.081	.274	.339	.492	.831
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.725	.210	.018	.210	.529	1.088	.273	.358	.479	.836
Alex Bregman	4.7	.775	.189	.011	.155	.516	.597	.273	.361	.437	.798
Carson Kelly	4.6	.732	.165	.009	.133	.455	.797	.254	.334	.396	.730
Michael Busch	4.5	.608	.186	.028	.180	.535	.981	.258	.356	.459	.815
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.874	.212	.013	.063	.315	.344	.290	.350	.397	.747
Ian Happ	4.3	.575	.180	.010	.147	.509	1.036	.245	.343	.418	.761
Dansby Swanson	4.2	.639	.145	.022	.151	.367	.915	.254	.324	.424	.748
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.609	.177	.007	.108	.344	.760	.249	.327	.391	.717

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.850	.192	.009	.138	.518	.682	.286	.379	.436	.815
Jordan Walker	4.7	.762	.214	.009	.187	.425	1.105	.279	.351	.469	.820
Iván Herrera	4.5	.772	.177	.015	.135	.566	.748	.285	.393	.444	.837
Alec Burleson	4.4	.825	.197	.012	.168	.383	.582	.299	.366	.480	.846
Masyn Winn	4.3	.785	.192	.024	.092	.371	.701	.279	.347	.411	.758
Nelson Velázquez	4.2	.559	.160	.011	.172	.419	1.070	.239	.321	.424	.745
José Fermín	4.1	.673	.197	.006	.077	.475	.493	.266	.360	.388	.749
Lars Nootbaar	4.0	.617	.163	.017	.116	.561	.738	.267	.374	.426	.800
Blaze Jordan	3.9	.681	.192	.017	.102	.253	.486	.274	.326	.421	.748

Data notes: game-time temp 98F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections