Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante · 88°F

1.3% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

49.9%

St. Louis Cardinals win

50.1%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

10.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 5.25)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.01)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.26

Over

61.6%

Under

31.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	49.9%	+102	+100
St. Louis Cardinals	50.1%	-110	-100

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	5.0	.834	.230	.050	.200	.370	.981	.288	.351	.493	.843
Seiya Suzuki	4.9	.799	.231	.021	.166	.543	.995	.282	.367	.461	.828
Michael Busch	4.8	.711	.200	.033	.163	.589	.933	.268	.368	.451	.819
Alex Bregman	4.7	.789	.209	.009	.121	.510	.523	.275	.363	.419	.783
Ian Happ	4.5	.650	.195	.016	.137	.584	1.000	.254	.357	.416	.773
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.933	.231	.014	.052	.320	.319	.302	.360	.404	.764
Michael Conforto	4.3	.631	.185	.007	.130	.489	.915	.251	.344	.407	.750
Carson Kelly	4.2	.733	.161	.009	.108	.421	.651	.269	.349	.402	.751
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.667	.156	.021	.124	.383	.821	.261	.334	.415	.749

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.828	.185	.009	.155	.491	.691	.282	.370	.442	.812
Jordan Walker	4.6	.753	.211	.009	.206	.393	1.059	.280	.347	.481	.828
Alec Burleson	4.5	.826	.195	.013	.199	.369	.592	.299	.362	.497	.859
Iván Herrera	4.4	.748	.164	.010	.143	.531	.706	.282	.386	.445	.830
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.646	.169	.016	.143	.587	.783	.264	.368	.434	.803
Masyn Winn	4.2	.746	.186	.020	.101	.335	.672	.275	.340	.413	.753
Bryan Torres	4.1	.771	.155	.018	.068	.475	.678	.281	.368	.390	.758
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.691	.196	.015	.117	.236	.484	.272	.321	.426	.747
Nathan Church	3.9	.700	.149	.016	.103	.255	.608	.270	.326	.407	.733

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections