Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Dustin May · 85°F

2.0% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

50.6%

St. Louis Cardinals win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

9.31

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.79)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.52)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.31

Over

53.0%

Under

39.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	50.6%	+102	-102
St. Louis Cardinals	49.4%	-110	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.738	.208	.047	.199	.357	1.156	.267	.332	.468	.801
Seiya Suzuki	4.8	.708	.208	.018	.182	.519	1.163	.264	.350	.451	.801
Michael Busch	4.7	.634	.180	.027	.181	.555	1.083	.253	.354	.445	.799
Alex Bregman	4.6	.725	.188	.012	.136	.498	.622	.265	.355	.419	.774
Ian Happ	4.5	.574	.179	.015	.151	.557	1.149	.239	.343	.410	.753
Michael Conforto	4.3	.600	.173	.009	.139	.472	1.055	.241	.333	.399	.732
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.798	.163	.028	.065	.273	.762	.269	.325	.374	.699
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.615	.148	.021	.136	.374	.961	.247	.320	.408	.728
Miguel Amaya	4.0	.594	.167	.007	.098	.342	.811	.242	.324	.375	.698

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.787	.179	.008	.141	.446	.739	.272	.356	.424	.780
Jordan Walker	4.5	.699	.197	.010	.200	.353	1.114	.268	.331	.466	.797
Iván Herrera	4.4	.752	.161	.010	.152	.486	.790	.283	.381	.450	.831
Alec Burleson	4.3	.741	.184	.012	.196	.323	.599	.286	.346	.488	.833
Masyn Winn	4.2	.713	.176	.019	.102	.311	.731	.262	.324	.397	.721
José Fermín	4.1	.655	.184	.006	.087	.413	.528	.257	.343	.383	.726
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.674	.188	.019	.116	.218	.542	.266	.312	.419	.731
Nathan Church	3.9	.688	.142	.014	.101	.231	.664	.263	.314	.394	.709
Pedro Pagés	3.8	.563	.135	.007	.118	.237	.949	.237	.292	.381	.673

Data notes: away starter Matthew Boyd: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections