Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Andre Pallante · 96°F

2.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies win

59.1%

St. Louis Cardinals win

40.9%

Fair line (home)

+144

Proj. total

9.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.41)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.21)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.62

Over

63.3%

Under

36.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	59.1%	-166	-144
St. Louis Cardinals	40.9%	+152	+144

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	5.0	.597	.141	.014	.291	.812	1.256	.251	.380	.501	.881
Trea Turner	4.9	.969	.242	.020	.117	.329	.772	.296	.348	.436	.784
Bryce Harper	4.8	.769	.251	.015	.194	.658	.823	.299	.400	.509	.908
Luis Arraez	4.7	1.141	.224	.046	.039	.253	.155	.329	.370	.427	.797
J.T. Realmuto	4.6	.770	.207	.015	.114	.328	.874	.264	.327	.402	.729
Bryson Stott	4.5	.828	.185	.036	.092	.397	.607	.282	.350	.414	.764
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.812	.206	.025	.111	.401	.996	.293	.362	.443	.804
Alec Bohm	4.3	.820	.206	.015	.096	.304	.509	.291	.349	.425	.773
Justin Crawford	4.1	.875	.177	.032	.048	.290	.700	.296	.350	.397	.746

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.851	.187	.007	.117	.376	.823	.278	.348	.409	.757
Iván Herrera	4.5	.823	.193	.012	.116	.422	.886	.286	.369	.428	.797
Jordan Walker	4.4	.724	.218	.011	.146	.286	1.186	.268	.321	.433	.753
Alec Burleson	4.3	.811	.197	.013	.141	.269	.687	.290	.339	.451	.790
José Fermín	4.2	.730	.216	.006	.069	.364	.607	.269	.341	.383	.724
Masyn Winn	4.1	.772	.192	.021	.074	.252	.791	.277	.328	.395	.723
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.729	.211	.019	.089	.189	.597	.277	.315	.413	.728
Everson Pereira	3.9	.544	.143	.009	.122	.257	1.283	.228	.288	.375	.662
Pedro Pagés	3.8	.599	.148	.006	.096	.205	1.010	.241	.288	.368	.657

Data notes: game-time temp 96F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections