Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 10, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Hunter Dobbins · 94°F

6.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies win

46.2%

St. Louis Cardinals win

53.8%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

10.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.97)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.13)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.1

Over

50.3%

Under

39.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	46.2%	-114	+116
St. Louis Cardinals	53.8%	+105	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.554	.143	.013	.317	.738	1.257	.249	.369	.519	.888
Bryson Stott	4.8	.875	.199	.035	.107	.398	.654	.278	.343	.413	.756
Bryce Harper	4.7	.729	.237	.018	.217	.604	.815	.296	.391	.523	.914
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.087	.218	.045	.047	.249	.156	.324	.365	.428	.794
Brandon Marsh	4.5	.810	.202	.023	.137	.377	1.039	.287	.351	.449	.800
Derek Hill	4.4	.724	.173	.018	.111	.287	1.134	.253	.310	.387	.697
Justin Crawford	4.3	.858	.178	.034	.054	.290	.746	.285	.338	.389	.726
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.721	.185	.029	.122	.161	.767	.269	.311	.424	.735
Garrett Stubbs	4.0	.630	.134	.010	.078	.328	.856	.234	.308	.341	.649

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.860	.194	.009	.177	.467	.658	.296	.378	.474	.852
Iván Herrera	4.6	.813	.195	.014	.164	.529	.725	.298	.395	.477	.873
Alec Burleson	4.5	.834	.202	.011	.203	.358	.573	.304	.364	.506	.870
Jordan Walker	4.4	.740	.209	.011	.206	.358	.999	.290	.353	.501	.854
Nathan Church	4.3	.817	.169	.022	.119	.280	.646	.283	.336	.427	.763
Masyn Winn	4.2	.771	.198	.022	.100	.326	.668	.285	.347	.426	.773
José Fermín	4.1	.674	.197	.007	.092	.428	.469	.269	.356	.404	.760
Jimmy Crooks	4.0	.611	.159	.012	.128	.328	1.046	.252	.322	.409	.731
César Prieto	3.9	.737	.199	.014	.076	.199	.528	.283	.328	.409	.737

Data notes: game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections