Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy · 98°F

2.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies win

57.1%

St. Louis Cardinals win

42.9%

Fair line (home)

+133

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.21)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.24)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.46

Over

62.4%

Under

37.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	57.1%	-156	-133
St. Louis Cardinals	42.9%	+143	+133

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	5.0	.543	.134	.011	.322	.785	1.341	.244	.371	.516	.887
Trea Turner	4.9	.914	.215	.024	.133	.333	.832	.287	.341	.435	.776
Bryce Harper	4.8	.722	.235	.013	.217	.642	.877	.291	.391	.515	.906
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.087	.220	.045	.044	.256	.166	.321	.363	.422	.785
Bryson Stott	4.5	.800	.180	.034	.096	.415	.649	.271	.343	.402	.745
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.775	.197	.025	.133	.395	1.071	.283	.351	.445	.795
J.T. Realmuto	4.3	.673	.186	.015	.121	.310	.892	.252	.317	.399	.716
Alec Bohm	4.2	.767	.195	.015	.106	.309	.566	.281	.341	.422	.763
Justin Crawford	4.1	.808	.167	.032	.050	.297	.751	.280	.337	.381	.718

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.807	.185	.008	.137	.393	.904	.274	.351	.422	.772
Iván Herrera	4.5	.757	.170	.013	.140	.452	.953	.274	.368	.431	.799
Alec Burleson	4.4	.775	.198	.010	.173	.295	.770	.284	.338	.465	.803
Jordan Walker	4.3	.676	.188	.009	.174	.293	1.246	.263	.319	.445	.765
Nathan Church	4.2	.735	.156	.021	.104	.219	.849	.258	.305	.388	.692
Masyn Winn	4.1	.705	.182	.017	.086	.274	.849	.262	.319	.387	.706
César Prieto	4.0	.727	.184	.013	.073	.180	.728	.265	.306	.379	.685
José Fermín	3.9	.625	.180	.007	.074	.349	.603	.256	.334	.376	.710
Jimmy Crooks	3.8	.552	.130	.011	.102	.265	1.200	.231	.295	.363	.658

Data notes: game-time temp 98F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections