Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Chris Bassitt vs Matthew Liberatore · 85°F

1.5% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Baltimore Orioles win

44.0%

St. Louis Cardinals win

56.0%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

10.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.82)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.22)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.04

Over

60.3%

Under

32.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	44.0%	+115	+127
St. Louis Cardinals	56.0%	-125	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.7	3.7	5.6	1.8	2.8
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.9	4.8	5.0	1.8	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Chris Bassitt4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 2%

Matthew Liberatore4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.8	.758	.184	.025	.128	.523	1.005	.256	.342	.400	.741
Pete Alonso	4.7	.640	.192	.005	.269	.493	1.019	.266	.355	.508	.864
Gunnar Henderson	4.6	.703	.206	.030	.181	.455	.896	.272	.351	.468	.819
Coby Mayo	4.5	.582	.180	.031	.214	.357	1.215	.245	.312	.459	.771
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.4	.650	.186	.020	.210	.203	1.104	.257	.299	.463	.761
Samuel Basallo	4.3	.607	.165	.009	.219	.360	.968	.256	.324	.472	.796
Christian Franklin	4.2	.667	.142	.023	.067	.422	1.032	.242	.328	.347	.675
Dylan Beavers	4.1	.623	.163	.014	.118	.452	.861	.256	.343	.407	.751
Leody Taveras	4.0	.656	.132	.033	.093	.274	.836	.249	.305	.379	.684

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.823	.188	.008	.168	.509	.656	.288	.381	.460	.841
Iván Herrera	4.6	.796	.188	.011	.160	.483	.746	.291	.389	.465	.854
Alec Burleson	4.5	.826	.208	.012	.210	.371	.591	.308	.372	.519	.891
Jordan Walker	4.4	.738	.222	.007	.196	.348	.948	.291	.354	.497	.851
Joshua Báez	4.3	.603	.179	.021	.220	.282	1.137	.260	.321	.484	.805
Nolan Gorman	4.2	.519	.128	.005	.199	.461	1.284	.231	.319	.430	.749
Ramón Urías	4.1	.703	.181	.010	.116	.307	.793	.273	.339	.421	.759
Nathan Church	4.0	.744	.160	.021	.111	.240	.586	.282	.334	.428	.762
José Fermín	3.8	.632	.188	.006	.086	.406	.433	.270	.359	.406	.765

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections