Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Michael McGreevy · 88°F

3.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Baltimore Orioles win

47.9%

St. Louis Cardinals win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.02)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.90)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.92

Over

59.1%

Under

40.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	47.9%	-109	+109
St. Louis Cardinals	52.1%	+101	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Bradish RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.1	4.6	5.6	2.2	2.7
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.0	5.8	1.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Bradish4+ 69%6+ 32%8+ 8%

Michael McGreevy4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.9	.811	.202	.023	.129	.465	.876	.267	.342	.413	.755
Pete Alonso	4.8	.722	.211	.005	.260	.423	.879	.282	.357	.517	.874
Gunnar Henderson	4.6	.757	.213	.032	.194	.399	.777	.285	.353	.489	.842
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.701	.192	.011	.234	.308	.899	.272	.326	.490	.816
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.4	.697	.207	.022	.218	.169	.984	.272	.307	.488	.795
Dylan Beavers	4.3	.727	.184	.013	.130	.430	.811	.273	.350	.428	.778
Leody Taveras	4.2	.722	.148	.048	.099	.273	.784	.260	.311	.399	.710
Colton Cowser	4.1	.617	.160	.007	.158	.368	1.046	.256	.330	.432	.762
Carlos Narváez	4.0	.581	.167	.004	.111	.308	.959	.238	.305	.378	.683

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.804	.181	.009	.154	.537	.767	.279	.373	.440	.813
Iván Herrera	4.6	.803	.197	.010	.157	.518	.834	.292	.389	.465	.853
Alec Burleson	4.5	.819	.201	.012	.186	.383	.690	.297	.362	.488	.849
Jordan Walker	4.4	.732	.215	.007	.175	.356	1.074	.282	.346	.470	.815
Nathan Church	4.3	.781	.163	.022	.109	.284	.707	.271	.326	.406	.732
José Fermín	4.2	.687	.201	.006	.091	.464	.534	.268	.358	.400	.759
Nolan Gorman	4.1	.492	.128	.005	.186	.475	1.335	.226	.318	.420	.739
Bryan Torres	4.0	.759	.148	.029	.054	.431	.738	.282	.364	.387	.751
Jimmy Crooks	3.9	.566	.149	.010	.128	.307	1.123	.243	.312	.401	.713

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections