Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 27, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Gordon Graceffo · 82°F

6.5% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Baltimore Orioles win

47.9%

St. Louis Cardinals win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.81)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.76)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.57

Over

55.5%

Under

36.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	47.9%	-125	+109
St. Louis Cardinals	52.1%	+115	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.1	3.8	5.9	1.6	2.7
Gordon Graceffo RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	2.1	1.8	2.3	0.8	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Trevor Rogers4+ 54%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Gordon Graceffo4+ 10%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.9	.762	.189	.023	.112	.554	.976	.254	.345	.388	.733
Pete Alonso	4.8	.674	.193	.005	.231	.507	.993	.266	.358	.482	.841
Gunnar Henderson	4.6	.712	.205	.031	.167	.485	.868	.272	.355	.459	.814
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.651	.176	.013	.208	.391	1.014	.256	.326	.457	.783
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.4	.647	.189	.021	.196	.214	1.080	.254	.298	.451	.749
Dylan Beavers	4.3	.665	.168	.013	.109	.503	.902	.253	.346	.391	.738
Coby Mayo	4.2	.542	.171	.030	.178	.358	1.091	.243	.315	.444	.760
Colton Cowser	4.1	.569	.144	.007	.146	.440	1.135	.240	.330	.405	.735
Leody Taveras	4.0	.628	.131	.042	.088	.312	.814	.244	.307	.375	.682

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.6	.770	.227	.005	.103	.466	.533	.268	.350	.401	.751
Iván Herrera	4.5	.801	.193	.010	.152	.462	.744	.291	.378	.460	.839
Jordan Walker	4.4	.755	.222	.009	.185	.336	.986	.289	.348	.485	.832
Alec Burleson	4.3	.809	.201	.010	.185	.341	.591	.305	.364	.502	.866
Joshua Báez	4.2	.598	.176	.025	.205	.252	1.143	.257	.310	.471	.781
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.733	.200	.035	.122	.200	.522	.281	.320	.446	.766
Ramón Urías	4.0	.690	.174	.009	.118	.282	.804	.270	.330	.419	.749
Nathan Church	3.9	.710	.151	.021	.104	.227	.595	.273	.321	.412	.733
Pedro Pagés	3.8	.595	.148	.008	.113	.225	.892	.246	.297	.390	.686

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections