Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Jared Jones vs Quinn Mathews · 83°F

2.9% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.1%

St. Louis Cardinals win

50.9%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

8.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.41)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.30)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.71

Over

55.8%

Under

44.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.1%	-113	+104
St. Louis Cardinals	50.9%	+104	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.4	4.5	4.3	1.6	2.0
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	5.0	4.7	2.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Jared Jones4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 7%

Quinn Mathews4+ 76%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jared Triolo	4.9	.783	.190	.010	.073	.599	1.022	.249	.348	.349	.697
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.8	.580	.182	.013	.192	.607	1.342	.234	.339	.424	.763
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.694	.190	.013	.126	.534	1.106	.252	.349	.398	.747
Oneil Cruz	4.6	.589	.166	.016	.168	.613	1.354	.240	.347	.420	.767
Nick Gonzales	4.5	.831	.213	.024	.070	.335	.781	.281	.345	.397	.742
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.638	.163	.015	.110	.479	1.120	.242	.330	.378	.708
Jake Mangum	4.2	.858	.178	.016	.036	.234	.717	.276	.327	.357	.683
Nick Yorke	4.1	.712	.175	.016	.080	.332	.856	.261	.327	.380	.706
Henry Davis	4.0	.536	.140	.005	.115	.409	.916	.225	.317	.365	.682

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.736	.168	.008	.145	.503	.825	.264	.359	.419	.777
Iván Herrera	4.5	.720	.175	.008	.134	.492	.909	.267	.368	.420	.788
Alec Burleson	4.4	.732	.188	.009	.179	.375	.730	.279	.347	.466	.812
Jordan Walker	4.3	.640	.188	.008	.158	.346	1.136	.256	.323	.430	.753
José Fermín	4.2	.631	.186	.006	.082	.467	.591	.248	.342	.370	.712
Nathan Church	4.1	.695	.153	.017	.099	.255	.743	.256	.311	.384	.695
Joshua Báez	4.0	.504	.147	.018	.178	.256	1.248	.232	.292	.428	.719
Nolan Gorman	3.8	.418	.107	.006	.164	.434	1.359	.205	.298	.386	.683
Jimmy Crooks	3.7	.492	.130	.010	.121	.288	1.155	.223	.293	.374	.667

Data notes: home starter Quinn Mathews: only 12 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Quinn Mathews: only 54 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections