Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Matthew Liberatore · 77°F

6.2% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago White Sox win

44.5%

St. Louis Cardinals win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.06)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.47

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	44.5%	-107	+125
St. Louis Cardinals	55.5%	-101	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	3.4	5.4	1.6	2.4
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.6	4.9	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Kay4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Matthew Liberatore4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.8	.858	.186	.005	.076	.491	.800	.266	.349	.366	.715
Randal Grichuk	4.7	.698	.238	.013	.179	.273	.931	.260	.309	.444	.753
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.618	.206	.013	.144	.562	.783	.250	.350	.418	.768
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.529	.152	.007	.183	.370	1.325	.217	.294	.396	.689
Edgar Quero	4.3	.796	.143	.004	.076	.327	.784	.258	.324	.354	.678
Brenton Doyle	4.2	.646	.156	.009	.108	.271	1.129	.234	.286	.360	.646
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.650	.181	.025	.090	.352	.961	.254	.325	.389	.714
Jake Rogers	4.0	.503	.135	.019	.117	.382	1.065	.216	.298	.362	.659
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.761	.162	.016	.045	.205	.634	.269	.312	.359	.671

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.6	.766	.216	.006	.082	.474	.534	.262	.351	.379	.730
Iván Herrera	4.5	.788	.181	.011	.123	.492	.736	.283	.384	.430	.814
Jordan Walker	4.4	.742	.205	.007	.152	.361	.998	.276	.343	.444	.787
Alec Burleson	4.3	.778	.194	.010	.142	.377	.591	.288	.358	.452	.810
Joshua Báez	4.2	.587	.173	.018	.179	.275	1.135	.248	.310	.440	.750
Leo Bernal	4.1	.670	.162	.011	.103	.299	.803	.252	.314	.382	.697
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.663	.171	.013	.090	.280	.900	.256	.318	.384	.702
Masyn Winn	3.9	.669	.180	.015	.068	.325	.679	.266	.337	.385	.722
Nathan Church	3.8	.691	.147	.021	.083	.237	.539	.271	.327	.398	.724

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections