Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Lake Bachar vs Kyle Leahy · 84°F

2.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.0%

St. Louis Cardinals win

50.9%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

8.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.55)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.97

Over

50.4%

Under

42.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.0%	+110	+104
St. Louis Cardinals	50.9%	-120	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	2.0	2.1	0.9	1.0
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	4.1	5.2	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Lake Bachar4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Kyle Leahy4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.9	.796	.248	.013	.121	.579	.723	.278	.372	.428	.800
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.677	.200	.010	.200	.390	1.200	.251	.318	.440	.758
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.747	.192	.024	.127	.465	1.050	.264	.347	.415	.762
Nick Gonzales	4.5	.887	.238	.023	.072	.265	.750	.289	.339	.407	.746
Oneil Cruz	4.4	.618	.173	.017	.179	.489	1.262	.253	.341	.443	.784
Jake Mangum	4.3	.923	.180	.025	.040	.200	.674	.286	.328	.372	.700
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.666	.165	.013	.112	.374	1.052	.251	.323	.389	.712
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.615	.190	.013	.109	.278	.706	.245	.304	.388	.692
Jared Triolo	4.0	.665	.171	.010	.058	.397	.799	.254	.334	.357	.691

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.740	.165	.006	.136	.561	.771	.262	.365	.408	.773
Iván Herrera	4.5	.720	.168	.008	.137	.540	.870	.267	.376	.421	.798
Alec Burleson	4.4	.753	.186	.012	.169	.416	.706	.281	.355	.461	.816
Jordan Walker	4.3	.669	.197	.007	.159	.378	1.109	.264	.335	.439	.774
Nathan Church	4.2	.721	.146	.020	.101	.295	.746	.254	.315	.380	.695
José Fermín	4.1	.636	.173	.006	.084	.496	.549	.253	.356	.377	.733
Nolan Gorman	4.0	.431	.108	.005	.172	.490	1.382	.204	.305	.386	.690
Joshua Báez	3.9	.493	.145	.017	.162	.279	1.169	.230	.298	.418	.716
Jimmy Crooks	3.8	.506	.129	.009	.120	.327	1.127	.226	.304	.375	.679

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections