Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Matthew Liberatore · 87°F

1.1% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates win

53.0%

St. Louis Cardinals win

47.0%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

8.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.66)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.19)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.84

Over

56.9%

Under

43.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	53.0%	-123	-113
St. Louis Cardinals	47.0%	+114	+113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Braxton Ashcraft RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.4	5.0	5.6	1.7	2.4
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.9	4.9	5.1	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Braxton Ashcraft4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Matthew Liberatore4+ 74%6+ 36%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jared Triolo	4.9	.841	.201	.012	.085	.475	.983	.261	.340	.371	.711
Oneil Cruz	4.8	.652	.176	.018	.203	.496	1.408	.247	.331	.440	.771
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.731	.195	.013	.144	.434	1.092	.260	.340	.417	.758
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.6	.702	.182	.016	.141	.396	1.172	.252	.323	.407	.729
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.628	.177	.010	.205	.376	1.122	.252	.321	.453	.774
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.572	.171	.011	.202	.454	1.209	.248	.334	.456	.790
Jake Mangum	4.2	.900	.185	.016	.041	.174	.700	.286	.325	.370	.696
Spencer Horwitz	4.1	.671	.201	.011	.111	.478	.644	.277	.371	.432	.803
Nick Yorke	4.0	.722	.169	.018	.087	.271	.811	.269	.325	.395	.720

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.6	.872	.177	.033	.059	.452	.894	.276	.351	.377	.728
Iván Herrera	4.5	.755	.178	.010	.129	.431	.881	.271	.360	.418	.778
Alec Burleson	4.4	.773	.201	.009	.160	.336	.703	.283	.344	.456	.800
Jordan Walker	4.3	.689	.201	.009	.160	.308	1.084	.268	.327	.445	.772
Nolan Gorman	4.2	.483	.121	.008	.175	.428	1.452	.210	.294	.387	.681
José Fermín	4.1	.658	.183	.007	.080	.408	.546	.256	.343	.377	.720
Nathan Church	4.0	.690	.153	.020	.097	.226	.700	.258	.308	.388	.697
Ramón Urías	3.9	.617	.153	.008	.100	.267	.886	.248	.312	.381	.693
Thomas Saggese	3.7	.599	.158	.013	.086	.214	1.015	.245	.296	.373	.669

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections