Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Sean Newcomb vs Kyle Leahy · 84°F

3.3% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

52.8%

St. Louis Cardinals win

47.2%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

8.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.75)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.98

Over

50.4%

Under

49.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	52.8%	-102	-112
St. Louis Cardinals	47.2%	-106	+112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Newcomb LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.2	2.0	2.1	0.8	0.8
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	4.1	4.9	1.9	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Sean Newcomb4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Kyle Leahy4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.907	.226	.030	.076	.442	.719	.285	.370	.403	.774
Kyle Teel	4.8	.817	.177	.008	.129	.479	1.143	.264	.344	.399	.743
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.664	.227	.014	.151	.575	.775	.258	.356	.431	.787
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.529	.131	.003	.227	.690	1.350	.230	.351	.441	.792
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.751	.196	.013	.119	.393	.800	.265	.333	.407	.741
Tristan Peters	4.4	.735	.207	.025	.090	.339	.750	.265	.328	.396	.725
Chase Meidroth	4.3	.786	.168	.003	.068	.429	.707	.271	.352	.370	.723
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.525	.150	.007	.172	.356	1.207	.228	.305	.410	.715
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.633	.177	.034	.091	.373	.905	.258	.334	.401	.735

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.6	.743	.208	.005	.090	.521	.578	.259	.353	.380	.734
Iván Herrera	4.5	.747	.162	.008	.124	.541	.839	.270	.377	.412	.789
Alec Burleson	4.4	.758	.186	.010	.160	.401	.682	.281	.353	.454	.807
Joshua Báez	4.3	.557	.172	.017	.180	.298	1.255	.235	.300	.425	.725
Leo Bernal	4.2	.657	.153	.012	.115	.341	.906	.246	.313	.382	.696
Nolan Gorman	4.1	.460	.117	.005	.169	.483	1.358	.209	.306	.385	.691
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.649	.167	.015	.098	.293	.978	.254	.316	.388	.704
Masyn Winn	3.9	.636	.162	.013	.070	.350	.736	.253	.329	.368	.697
Nathan Church	3.7	.658	.133	.018	.085	.249	.612	.259	.315	.382	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections