Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · David Sandlin vs Michael McGreevy · 81°F

0.9% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago White Sox win

51.1%

St. Louis Cardinals win

48.9%

Fair line (home)

+104

Proj. total

8.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.64)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.24)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.88

Over

49.6%

Under

50.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	51.1%	-113	-104
St. Louis Cardinals	48.9%	+104	+104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Sandlin RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	4.3	5.0	1.8	2.2
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	3.8	5.7	1.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

David Sandlin4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Michael McGreevy4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.947	.219	.031	.078	.378	.626	.293	.367	.412	.779
Kyle Teel	4.8	.847	.181	.006	.131	.428	1.031	.272	.343	.409	.751
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.673	.233	.012	.158	.501	.689	.262	.348	.440	.788
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.551	.141	.005	.233	.598	1.250	.238	.344	.455	.798
Andrew Benintendi	4.4	.759	.188	.017	.122	.338	.700	.266	.326	.411	.736
Tristan Peters	4.3	.744	.211	.025	.090	.303	.669	.268	.326	.402	.728
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.821	.171	.003	.066	.382	.642	.280	.351	.379	.730
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.536	.157	.008	.176	.310	1.109	.234	.301	.421	.722
Brenton Doyle	4.0	.642	.164	.010	.105	.239	.954	.247	.295	.381	.675

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	4.6	.847	.161	.031	.061	.520	.841	.269	.356	.369	.725
Iván Herrera	4.5	.750	.176	.009	.129	.513	.845	.273	.372	.422	.793
Alec Burleson	4.4	.762	.188	.009	.170	.388	.677	.283	.351	.462	.814
Jordan Walker	4.3	.654	.197	.008	.156	.364	1.075	.260	.327	.434	.761
Leo Bernal	4.2	.661	.155	.013	.115	.339	.892	.246	.312	.383	.695
Nolan Gorman	4.1	.463	.117	.007	.180	.459	1.364	.212	.303	.396	.700
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.638	.173	.012	.099	.285	.983	.252	.312	.386	.698
Nathan Church	3.9	.685	.140	.020	.091	.244	.633	.261	.315	.388	.703
Masyn Winn	3.8	.610	.159	.014	.076	.318	.725	.253	.324	.375	.699

Data notes: away starter David Sandlin: only 65 BF vs LHB this season · away starter David Sandlin: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections