San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Quinn Mathews · 82°F

1.0% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

43.8%

St. Louis Cardinals win

56.2%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

8.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.94)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.21

Over

43.3%

Under

48.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	43.8%	+129	+128
St. Louis Cardinals	56.2%	-140	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Landen Roupp RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.1	4.7	5.2	2.2	2.3
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	4.9	4.9	2.3	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Landen Roupp4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Quinn Mathews4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.8	.882	.151	.075	.067	.356	1.122	.266	.325	.379	.704
Bryce Eldridge	4.7	.647	.191	.004	.152	.621	1.266	.245	.350	.407	.756
Shay Whitcomb	4.6	.649	.165	.011	.141	.348	1.181	.230	.295	.375	.670
Turner Hill	4.5	.791	.197	.038	.042	.475	.568	.270	.356	.371	.727
Brett Harris	4.4	.631	.154	.011	.071	.481	.904	.227	.326	.329	.656
Scott Bandura	4.3	.713	.183	.026	.060	.418	.866	.258	.338	.368	.706
Andrew Knizner	4.2	.611	.165	.009	.086	.400	.813	.236	.322	.355	.677
Grant McCray	4.1	.526	.137	.031	.076	.430	1.122	.214	.303	.333	.636
Christian Koss	3.9	.632	.169	.011	.071	.235	.829	.242	.297	.352	.649

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Thomas Saggese	4.6	.787	.205	.013	.096	.365	1.041	.260	.325	.383	.708
Iván Herrera	4.5	.765	.175	.010	.105	.559	.766	.275	.382	.408	.789
Alec Burleson	4.4	.778	.203	.010	.145	.416	.626	.287	.360	.453	.813
Jordan Walker	4.3	.703	.209	.007	.134	.376	.986	.271	.341	.431	.772
Leo Bernal	4.2	.703	.165	.015	.100	.365	.809	.259	.328	.389	.717
Joshua Báez	4.1	.555	.176	.018	.150	.293	1.132	.239	.302	.415	.718
Nolan Gorman	4.0	.476	.124	.005	.142	.496	1.233	.216	.317	.377	.695
Masyn Winn	3.9	.657	.176	.014	.063	.352	.677	.261	.335	.374	.709
Nathan Church	3.8	.683	.148	.021	.071	.257	.551	.267	.324	.384	.708

Data notes: home starter Quinn Mathews: only 31 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections