Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Cade Cavalli vs Kyle Leahy · 92°F

2.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals win

48.0%

St. Louis Cardinals win

52.0%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.57)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.54)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.1

Over

58.8%

Under

41.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	48.0%	-105	+108
St. Louis Cardinals	52.0%	-103	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cade Cavalli RHP · Washington Nationals	4.9	4.7	5.3	1.6	2.2
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	4.1	4.9	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Cade Cavalli4+ 71%6+ 35%8+ 9%

Kyle Leahy4+ 61%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.9	.690	.218	.010	.220	.698	1.287	.275	.384	.493	.877
Daylen Lile	4.8	.835	.210	.075	.125	.298	.815	.282	.333	.448	.781
Dylan Crews	4.6	.710	.194	.024	.138	.320	1.018	.250	.312	.404	.715
CJ Abrams	4.5	.704	.207	.029	.154	.331	.909	.266	.333	.443	.776
Brady House	4.4	.759	.196	.018	.132	.232	1.051	.265	.309	.417	.725
Jorbit Vivas	4.3	.713	.185	.016	.053	.430	.592	.254	.339	.352	.692
Yohandy Morales	4.2	.697	.185	.009	.134	.282	1.043	.264	.319	.420	.739
Harry Ford	4.1	.583	.169	.007	.086	.466	.944	.236	.333	.360	.692
Jacob Young	4.0	.730	.161	.021	.061	.271	.642	.266	.326	.372	.699

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.802	.182	.007	.131	.460	.828	.273	.363	.417	.780
Iván Herrera	4.6	.763	.185	.009	.128	.473	.908	.276	.376	.425	.801
Alec Burleson	4.5	.805	.211	.009	.164	.343	.751	.292	.354	.469	.823
Jordan Walker	4.3	.710	.204	.009	.152	.330	1.140	.270	.334	.441	.775
Leo Bernal	4.3	.707	.169	.015	.119	.296	.943	.258	.317	.401	.717
Thomas Saggese	4.1	.702	.181	.015	.098	.253	1.057	.260	.314	.391	.705
Bryan Torres	4.0	.783	.148	.027	.050	.428	.770	.282	.365	.381	.746
Masyn Winn	3.9	.672	.179	.018	.075	.301	.779	.265	.331	.388	.719
Nathan Church	3.8	.717	.145	.022	.080	.227	.620	.273	.326	.395	.721

Data notes: game-time temp 92F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections