San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Anthony Molina vs Matthew Liberatore · 82°F

5.5% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

45.3%

St. Louis Cardinals win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.17)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.55

Over

46.6%

Under

45.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	45.3%	+146	+121
St. Louis Cardinals	54.8%	-160	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Molina RHP · San Francisco Giants	3.1	2.3	3.5	1.0	1.5
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.3	5.2	1.5	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Molina4+ 18%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Matthew Liberatore4+ 65%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.8	.898	.148	.092	.082	.280	1.142	.272	.320	.401	.721
Bryce Eldridge	4.7	.688	.204	.004	.184	.477	1.282	.259	.339	.442	.781
Brett Harris	4.6	.696	.162	.013	.098	.392	.986	.236	.314	.353	.667
Jung Hoo Lee	4.5	.839	.212	.048	.074	.291	.431	.284	.338	.413	.751
Shay Whitcomb	4.3	.646	.166	.010	.149	.270	1.104	.240	.294	.396	.690
Turner Hill	4.2	.772	.186	.040	.051	.358	.545	.274	.343	.383	.726
Andrew Knizner	4.1	.622	.166	.009	.101	.329	.808	.240	.313	.370	.684
Scott Bandura	4.0	.698	.179	.028	.065	.324	.834	.264	.330	.381	.712
Christian Koss	3.9	.674	.169	.012	.075	.192	.818	.253	.298	.367	.665

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.6	.810	.179	.006	.126	.475	.595	.277	.364	.417	.781
Leo Bernal	4.5	.792	.185	.018	.119	.327	.768	.269	.327	.408	.735
Alec Burleson	4.4	.826	.206	.009	.149	.369	.533	.299	.364	.468	.832
Jordan Walker	4.3	.729	.207	.007	.148	.336	.900	.279	.341	.449	.790
Joshua Báez	4.2	.604	.187	.017	.178	.259	1.030	.255	.310	.450	.760
Nolan Gorman	4.1	.518	.135	.007	.159	.457	1.188	.227	.317	.401	.718
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.701	.183	.013	.094	.265	.799	.271	.327	.405	.732
Nathan Church	3.8	.729	.149	.025	.076	.230	.498	.274	.324	.393	.717
Pedro Pagés	3.7	.609	.142	.008	.091	.257	.801	.247	.305	.372	.677

Data notes: away starter Anthony Molina: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Anthony Molina: only 43 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections