Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Michael McGreevy · 90°F

1.2% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

51.4%

St. Louis Cardinals win

48.6%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.69)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.35)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.04

Over

51.4%

Under

48.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	51.4%	-105	-106
St. Louis Cardinals	48.6%	-103	+106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals	4.1	3.1	4.5	1.7	1.9
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.2	3.5	5.8	1.4	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Alvarez4+ 38%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Michael McGreevy4+ 46%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.728	.250	.011	.220	.602	1.155	.287	.380	.509	.889
Daylen Lile	4.7	.855	.213	.077	.140	.255	.699	.289	.333	.466	.799
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.655	.218	.007	.191	.316	.900	.252	.309	.441	.750
CJ Abrams	4.5	.732	.217	.029	.169	.288	.811	.277	.335	.466	.800
Dylan Crews	4.4	.701	.197	.021	.128	.277	.867	.257	.313	.411	.724
Jorbit Vivas	4.3	.747	.187	.013	.058	.379	.506	.261	.337	.361	.697
Andrés Chaparro	4.2	.626	.200	.004	.169	.304	.822	.260	.320	.446	.767
Keibert Ruiz	4.1	.760	.199	.004	.106	.176	.367	.277	.315	.413	.728
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.740	.100	.033	.035	.315	.714	.251	.314	.325	.639

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Fermín	4.7	.782	.226	.006	.085	.514	.527	.268	.358	.388	.746
Iván Herrera	4.6	.777	.189	.009	.124	.547	.748	.281	.384	.429	.813
Jordan Walker	4.5	.744	.214	.007	.159	.387	1.018	.279	.347	.453	.800
Leo Bernal	4.3	.755	.176	.011	.116	.329	.841	.265	.326	.402	.729
Thomas Saggese	4.2	.732	.194	.013	.106	.313	.923	.268	.329	.406	.735
Masyn Winn	4.1	.719	.194	.017	.083	.375	.697	.272	.346	.400	.746
Nathan Church	4.0	.764	.159	.023	.083	.269	.574	.277	.332	.399	.732
Pedro Pagés	3.9	.625	.152	.007	.107	.293	.903	.248	.311	.384	.695
Victor Scott II	3.8	.622	.133	.018	.048	.331	.761	.240	.317	.333	.650

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections