Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Quinn Mathews · 88°F

2.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals win

43.6%

St. Louis Cardinals win

56.4%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

9.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.64)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.07)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.71

Over

56.7%

Under

43.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	43.6%	+115	+130
St. Louis Cardinals	56.4%	-125	-130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Irvin RHP · Washington Nationals	4.6	3.4	5.5	1.8	2.6
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	4.9	5.0	2.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Jake Irvin4+ 44%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Quinn Mathews4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.9	.632	.214	.009	.204	.855	1.287	.265	.399	.476	.875
Andrés Chaparro	4.8	.646	.207	.005	.183	.509	1.034	.246	.334	.427	.761
Brady House	4.7	.771	.201	.017	.136	.315	1.120	.260	.316	.408	.724
CJ Abrams	4.6	.656	.200	.028	.156	.436	.919	.257	.342	.436	.778
Dylan Crews	4.5	.647	.181	.019	.127	.388	.981	.243	.321	.394	.714
Daylen Lile	4.3	.704	.175	.068	.113	.357	.775	.269	.336	.433	.770
Harry Ford	4.2	.567	.153	.005	.095	.591	.991	.228	.345	.353	.698
Jacob Young	4.1	.735	.166	.018	.060	.360	.669	.264	.339	.367	.706
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.709	.088	.022	.031	.418	.804	.238	.323	.301	.624

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.819	.192	.007	.167	.502	.688	.286	.376	.457	.833
Iván Herrera	4.6	.809	.180	.009	.161	.510	.758	.290	.387	.461	.848
Alec Burleson	4.5	.824	.211	.009	.196	.377	.614	.303	.367	.502	.870
Jordan Walker	4.4	.712	.211	.007	.195	.348	1.018	.281	.344	.483	.826
Leo Bernal	4.3	.751	.166	.015	.140	.324	.820	.272	.332	.428	.760
Thomas Saggese	4.2	.739	.186	.011	.126	.279	.898	.275	.330	.426	.756
Bryan Torres	4.1	.795	.152	.025	.061	.459	.657	.288	.373	.396	.769
José Fermín	4.0	.668	.192	.005	.087	.404	.447	.272	.356	.404	.760
Nathan Church	3.9	.718	.148	.019	.104	.243	.533	.277	.331	.417	.747

Data notes: home starter Quinn Mathews: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections