New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 6, 2026 · Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax · 72°F

0.2% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

50.0%

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

8.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.13)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.89)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.02

Over

45.2%

Under

54.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	50.0%	-103	+100
Tampa Bay Rays	50.0%	-105	-100

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.8	.528	.137	.018	.171	.675	1.139	.210	.329	.379	.708
Ben Rice	4.7	.525	.172	.020	.226	.552	1.097	.233	.333	.453	.786
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.664	.172	.011	.126	.413	1.063	.237	.312	.377	.689
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.639	.153	.031	.157	.451	.708	.247	.328	.420	.747
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.645	.142	.009	.126	.420	1.092	.238	.318	.377	.695
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.526	.118	.016	.182	.445	1.179	.224	.311	.410	.721
José Caballero	4.1	.553	.150	.007	.071	.415	1.039	.215	.307	.319	.625
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.441	.121	.004	.121	.473	1.333	.195	.294	.335	.629
Austin Wells	3.9	.432	.136	.005	.134	.397	1.041	.204	.293	.363	.656

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.804	.194	.015	.155	.465	.709	.289	.369	.459	.828
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.653	.164	.005	.140	.539	1.219	.250	.351	.404	.756
Junior Caminero	4.4	.630	.164	.004	.248	.395	.851	.266	.336	.498	.835
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.543	.150	.020	.113	.404	1.009	.217	.299	.355	.654
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.574	.171	.027	.103	.286	.931	.229	.290	.368	.659
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.876	.109	.049	.014	.234	.504	.276	.320	.341	.661
Nick Fortes	3.9	.611	.164	.007	.084	.218	.684	.238	.294	.356	.650
Richie Palacios	3.8	.543	.130	.029	.051	.439	.825	.227	.326	.329	.655
Taylor Walls	3.7	.454	.113	.027	.045	.416	.970	.196	.292	.289	.581

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections