New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 8, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Shane McClanahan · 72°F

2.0% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees win

45.9%

Tampa Bay Rays win

54.1%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

7.67

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 3.77)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.67

Over

43.9%

Under

56.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	45.9%	+105	+118
Tampa Bay Rays	54.1%	-113	-118

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.7	.714	.183	.012	.141	.399	1.128	.246	.315	.393	.708
Ben Rice	4.6	.531	.161	.022	.208	.512	1.132	.229	.323	.434	.757
Amed Rosario	4.5	.778	.172	.025	.097	.214	.956	.253	.295	.375	.669
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.636	.160	.028	.158	.420	.722	.250	.326	.425	.750
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.630	.143	.004	.115	.380	1.129	.231	.305	.359	.664
Anthony Volpe	4.2	.513	.158	.020	.108	.346	1.081	.210	.281	.348	.629
Max Schuemann	4.1	.541	.125	.014	.055	.456	1.056	.207	.307	.297	.603
Austin Wells	4.0	.444	.134	.008	.133	.387	1.086	.204	.289	.360	.649
José Caballero	3.8	.520	.138	.006	.070	.348	.996	.215	.298	.320	.618

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.5	.813	.189	.012	.164	.414	.686	.291	.363	.464	.827
Jonathan Aranda	4.4	.647	.164	.004	.166	.480	1.170	.254	.345	.427	.773
Junior Caminero	4.3	.619	.168	.006	.278	.357	.803	.273	.337	.531	.868
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.550	.154	.022	.127	.361	.972	.224	.297	.376	.673
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.575	.171	.026	.109	.262	.890	.231	.288	.376	.663
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.861	.115	.049	.017	.217	.473	.276	.318	.346	.664
Ben Williamson	3.9	.660	.173	.018	.038	.280	.827	.248	.310	.338	.648
Taylor Walls	3.8	.479	.120	.029	.051	.378	.959	.202	.287	.300	.587
Nick Fortes	3.6	.566	.144	.006	.090	.188	.621	.237	.289	.362	.651

Data notes: home starter Shane McClanahan: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Gerrit Cole: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections