New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 7, 2026 · Will Warren vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

1.3% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

47.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.02)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.99)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.01

Over

45.2%

Under

54.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	47.8%	+111	+109
Tampa Bay Rays	52.2%	-120	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.8	.518	.141	.016	.177	.668	1.087	.211	.330	.385	.715
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.704	.178	.011	.145	.417	1.051	.248	.322	.400	.722
Ben Rice	4.5	.512	.160	.023	.224	.520	1.020	.233	.331	.455	.786
Amed Rosario	4.4	.757	.167	.024	.098	.226	.867	.252	.296	.374	.671
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.643	.153	.029	.162	.423	.652	.255	.333	.435	.768
José Caballero	4.2	.568	.156	.007	.079	.391	1.020	.217	.304	.326	.629
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.1	.510	.124	.016	.162	.412	1.120	.222	.306	.398	.704
Max Schuemann	4.0	.521	.126	.015	.059	.462	.970	.208	.312	.304	.616
Ali Sánchez	3.9	.536	.118	.006	.083	.302	.997	.210	.277	.316	.593

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.816	.191	.013	.160	.477	.704	.289	.371	.460	.831
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.666	.166	.004	.150	.544	1.208	.254	.355	.415	.770
Junior Caminero	4.4	.649	.173	.006	.259	.402	.837	.275	.345	.519	.864
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.555	.155	.023	.118	.411	1.004	.222	.304	.367	.670
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.916	.119	.048	.016	.251	.500	.281	.327	.348	.675
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.584	.160	.017	.096	.339	.976	.231	.300	.362	.662
Taylor Walls	4.0	.504	.127	.029	.044	.438	1.013	.202	.295	.293	.588
Richie Palacios	3.8	.544	.139	.030	.059	.460	.817	.232	.334	.345	.679
Hunter Feduccia	3.7	.481	.125	.018	.061	.442	1.077	.210	.309	.315	.624

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections