Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Nick Martinez · 72°F

4.2% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

51.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

48.2%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.40)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.01)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.41

Over

41.9%

Under

49.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	51.8%	+106	-107
Tampa Bay Rays	48.2%	-115	+107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.8	.732	.172	.005	.114	.510	.847	.241	.328	.365	.693
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.668	.203	.009	.168	.406	1.028	.252	.336	.427	.763
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.681	.194	.011	.222	.314	.888	.263	.318	.472	.790
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.493	.142	.005	.273	.449	1.133	.230	.314	.474	.788
Josh Naylor	4.3	.736	.182	.003	.173	.305	.546	.273	.329	.449	.778
Luke Raley	4.2	.560	.149	.015	.184	.255	1.199	.235	.302	.423	.725
Cole Young	4.1	.679	.165	.018	.103	.313	.652	.257	.323	.393	.716
Miles Mastrobuoni	4.0	.636	.156	.013	.050	.347	.809	.234	.303	.324	.628
Buddy Kennedy	3.9	.570	.162	.012	.087	.348	.748	.236	.314	.363	.678

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.837	.193	.011	.155	.413	.715	.290	.362	.455	.816
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.718	.186	.004	.145	.478	1.135	.267	.355	.426	.782
Junior Caminero	4.4	.632	.166	.005	.281	.366	.856	.272	.337	.527	.864
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.572	.156	.019	.128	.361	.978	.226	.299	.375	.675
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.930	.125	.057	.013	.222	.457	.286	.327	.357	.684
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.587	.155	.018	.111	.308	.945	.234	.297	.375	.671
Taylor Walls	3.9	.517	.139	.026	.046	.387	.997	.206	.289	.300	.589
Richie Palacios	3.8	.578	.141	.025	.057	.405	.767	.237	.326	.344	.670
Hunter Feduccia	3.7	.496	.132	.022	.061	.386	1.022	.215	.302	.324	.626

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections