New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Paul Blackburn vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

5.5% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

46.7%

Tampa Bay Rays win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

7.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 3.83)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.88)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.71

Over

44.0%

Under

56.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	46.7%	+138	+114
Tampa Bay Rays	53.3%	-150	-114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.7	.559	.151	.021	.157	.553	1.120	.216	.314	.377	.691
Ben Rice	4.6	.562	.176	.023	.209	.453	1.065	.237	.322	.445	.767
Jasson Domínguez	4.5	.702	.167	.011	.118	.371	1.130	.244	.313	.377	.690
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.670	.159	.029	.146	.374	.691	.252	.320	.416	.736
José Caballero	4.3	.612	.163	.009	.070	.348	1.085	.221	.296	.321	.618
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.550	.122	.019	.160	.379	1.157	.226	.302	.395	.697
Max Schuemann	4.1	.572	.128	.013	.051	.407	1.009	.212	.302	.296	.598
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.473	.128	.005	.118	.388	1.318	.204	.287	.343	.630
Austin Wells	3.8	.445	.138	.007	.127	.338	1.023	.207	.284	.361	.645

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.807	.192	.012	.148	.476	.669	.287	.369	.451	.820
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.667	.162	.005	.136	.544	1.152	.252	.355	.403	.758
Junior Caminero	4.3	.651	.166	.006	.242	.401	.781	.271	.343	.501	.844
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.614	.169	.018	.097	.340	.966	.231	.298	.359	.657
Ryan Vilade	4.2	.621	.161	.024	.083	.368	.983	.238	.313	.360	.673
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.904	.111	.054	.013	.235	.474	.285	.329	.353	.682
Ben Williamson	3.9	.690	.173	.016	.031	.306	.810	.253	.319	.336	.655
Taylor Walls	3.8	.489	.129	.026	.041	.414	.949	.203	.294	.293	.588
Nick Fortes	3.7	.592	.144	.008	.082	.195	.604	.240	.295	.358	.654

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections