Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Griffin Jax · 72°F

0.9% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

50.0%

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

7.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 3.98)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.78)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.76

Over

40.7%

Under

47.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	50.0%	-100	+100
Tampa Bay Rays	50.0%	-108	-100

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.8	.665	.158	.004	.104	.602	1.051	.227	.332	.344	.675
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.582	.176	.010	.145	.485	1.254	.227	.328	.384	.712
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.612	.169	.009	.191	.377	1.122	.238	.307	.423	.730
Cal Raleigh	4.4	.426	.122	.003	.233	.538	1.311	.204	.309	.420	.728
Josh Naylor	4.3	.666	.158	.004	.152	.372	.696	.251	.322	.410	.732
Luke Raley	4.2	.487	.129	.013	.167	.301	1.382	.210	.289	.383	.673
Cole Young	4.1	.603	.157	.018	.089	.378	.781	.237	.318	.363	.680
Victor Robles	4.0	.597	.170	.010	.053	.292	.942	.229	.300	.326	.626
Colt Emerson	3.9	.482	.122	.012	.093	.326	1.170	.203	.281	.325	.606

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.5	.814	.193	.013	.154	.372	.804	.287	.354	.453	.807
Jonathan Aranda	4.4	.675	.175	.004	.145	.426	1.246	.255	.338	.412	.750
Junior Caminero	4.3	.618	.163	.005	.279	.316	.950	.268	.326	.522	.848
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.543	.148	.020	.127	.320	1.103	.218	.284	.365	.649
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.571	.169	.021	.108	.247	.977	.228	.282	.368	.649
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.881	.113	.054	.012	.191	.507	.280	.317	.348	.666
Ben Williamson	3.9	.662	.167	.016	.043	.250	.886	.247	.302	.338	.639
Richie Palacios	3.8	.550	.138	.024	.055	.358	.846	.228	.310	.333	.643
Nick Fortes	3.6	.577	.145	.005	.081	.157	.676	.236	.283	.353	.636

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections