Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Emerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

0.8% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

44.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

55.2%

Fair line (home)

-123

Proj. total

8.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 3.90)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.13)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.03

Over

40.6%

Under

51.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	44.8%	+123	+123
Tampa Bay Rays	55.2%	-133	-123

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.7	.666	.154	.005	.107	.588	.984	.227	.331	.345	.676
Randy Arozarena	4.6	.587	.175	.009	.159	.475	1.197	.232	.335	.399	.734
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.439	.125	.002	.254	.510	1.296	.207	.306	.433	.738
Josh Naylor	4.4	.674	.158	.004	.158	.380	.673	.249	.321	.409	.730
Mitch Garver	4.3	.443	.101	.017	.155	.508	1.308	.191	.295	.350	.646
Cole Young	4.2	.615	.156	.016	.098	.387	.772	.236	.317	.364	.681
Victor Robles	4.1	.606	.160	.010	.055	.297	.931	.224	.296	.317	.613
Weston Wilson	4.0	.465	.117	.007	.126	.377	1.214	.201	.283	.344	.627
Buddy Kennedy	3.9	.518	.143	.009	.078	.382	.847	.220	.309	.336	.645

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.851	.196	.012	.160	.433	.667	.298	.373	.469	.842
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.726	.177	.005	.151	.493	1.038	.271	.364	.435	.798
Junior Caminero	4.4	.651	.169	.006	.286	.356	.801	.278	.342	.539	.880
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.596	.162	.021	.127	.357	.931	.235	.307	.386	.693
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.938	.121	.059	.013	.222	.424	.288	.329	.359	.689
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.607	.170	.015	.118	.322	.890	.245	.310	.393	.703
Taylor Walls	4.0	.538	.137	.028	.042	.394	.953	.211	.296	.302	.598
Richie Palacios	3.8	.570	.143	.023	.057	.409	.719	.235	.327	.342	.669
Hunter Feduccia	3.7	.494	.134	.024	.066	.398	.979	.218	.307	.333	.640

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections