Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Parker Messick vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

3.0% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians win

43.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

56.3%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

7.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.70)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.04)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.74

Over

46.8%

Under

41.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	43.8%	+110	+129
Tampa Bay Rays	56.3%	-119	-129

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.845	.168	.022	.063	.420	.497	.259	.330	.354	.684
José Ramírez	4.6	.699	.214	.012	.174	.382	.630	.264	.331	.447	.778
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.743	.205	.016	.134	.359	.732	.269	.331	.425	.756
Brayan Rocchio	4.4	.678	.180	.025	.087	.298	.776	.242	.305	.364	.670
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.576	.178	.021	.091	.424	1.074	.228	.312	.359	.671
Angel Martínez	4.2	.605	.170	.017	.114	.190	.924	.232	.276	.371	.647
Kyle Manzardo	4.0	.480	.140	.014	.147	.362	1.124	.215	.294	.383	.677
Austin Hedges	3.9	.536	.113	.005	.087	.268	.952	.205	.266	.311	.577
Petey Halpin	3.8	.523	.126	.028	.064	.220	1.091	.208	.258	.313	.572

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.853	.198	.014	.142	.461	.720	.297	.375	.457	.832
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.677	.180	.023	.098	.382	1.136	.242	.314	.370	.684
Junior Caminero	4.4	.655	.173	.004	.263	.395	.858	.278	.347	.524	.871
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.624	.179	.025	.116	.304	.921	.242	.304	.390	.694
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.938	.133	.056	.013	.246	.468	.293	.337	.366	.703
Ben Williamson	4.0	.709	.183	.016	.042	.311	.847	.256	.320	.348	.668
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.529	.145	.020	.110	.363	.917	.227	.306	.372	.678
Nick Fortes	3.8	.626	.164	.006	.080	.202	.626	.247	.300	.364	.665
Richie Palacios	3.7	.559	.142	.027	.053	.412	.741	.241	.335	.351	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections