Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Tanner Bibee vs Nick Martinez · 72°F

3.1% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Guardians win

44.6%

Tampa Bay Rays win

55.4%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.06)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.39)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.45

Over

45.2%

Under

46.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	44.6%	+106	+124
Tampa Bay Rays	55.4%	-114	-124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.900	.183	.021	.075	.408	.381	.274	.341	.379	.720
José Ramírez	4.6	.727	.213	.016	.191	.394	.500	.273	.340	.469	.809
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.643	.203	.027	.107	.459	.948	.244	.327	.387	.715
Brayan Rocchio	4.4	.731	.184	.025	.098	.308	.630	.257	.319	.389	.708
Angel Martínez	4.3	.664	.190	.021	.135	.198	.804	.249	.292	.406	.699
Kyle Manzardo	4.2	.532	.154	.017	.192	.363	.995	.237	.311	.438	.749
Gabriel Arias	4.1	.591	.171	.018	.132	.233	1.165	.239	.289	.398	.687
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.598	.129	.021	.089	.260	.940	.227	.282	.345	.628
Petey Halpin	3.9	.580	.143	.031	.077	.219	.940	.230	.278	.351	.630

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.865	.199	.012	.165	.431	.698	.299	.372	.472	.844
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.722	.183	.004	.162	.490	1.125	.270	.360	.441	.802
Junior Caminero	4.4	.647	.177	.004	.304	.367	.843	.281	.345	.554	.899
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.597	.159	.022	.137	.386	.954	.236	.312	.395	.706
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.968	.122	.057	.012	.227	.458	.293	.334	.362	.696
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.606	.168	.015	.127	.334	.923	.246	.312	.401	.714
Richie Palacios	4.0	.611	.153	.028	.063	.428	.781	.244	.333	.357	.690
Ben Williamson	3.9	.689	.176	.018	.045	.286	.790	.261	.323	.359	.682
Hunter Feduccia	3.7	.515	.135	.023	.070	.416	1.012	.225	.315	.342	.658

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections