Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Chris Bassitt vs Steven Matz · 72°F

0.6% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles win

39.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

60.2%

Fair line (home)

-151

Proj. total

8.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.05)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.78)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.83

Over

48.8%

Under

42.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	39.8%	+143	+151
Tampa Bay Rays	60.2%	-155	-151

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Alonso	4.7	.597	.172	.004	.254	.438	1.104	.246	.329	.472	.802
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.644	.154	.024	.124	.458	1.057	.231	.314	.372	.685
Coby Mayo	4.5	.522	.177	.011	.183	.364	1.294	.220	.291	.404	.695
Tyler O'Neill	4.4	.534	.142	.012	.186	.418	1.243	.224	.307	.410	.717
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.590	.176	.029	.172	.388	.907	.252	.327	.448	.775
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.555	.161	.016	.166	.168	1.187	.227	.266	.402	.668
Leody Taveras	4.0	.611	.138	.035	.083	.274	.915	.231	.287	.353	.640
Colton Cowser	3.9	.495	.130	.005	.142	.368	1.226	.220	.302	.381	.683
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.500	.150	.004	.091	.329	1.055	.216	.291	.341	.632

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.918	.222	.013	.161	.474	.631	.315	.392	.490	.882
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.788	.206	.005	.151	.553	1.007	.291	.389	.460	.849
Chandler Simpson	4.5	1.066	.138	.064	.016	.261	.432	.306	.349	.380	.729
Junior Caminero	4.4	.672	.186	.006	.287	.407	.747	.292	.363	.561	.925
Liam Hicks	4.3	.770	.159	.015	.101	.464	.502	.281	.374	.414	.788
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.642	.181	.017	.119	.355	.864	.254	.323	.405	.728
Cedric Mullins	4.1	.585	.161	.021	.122	.374	.838	.244	.323	.401	.724
Richie Palacios	3.9	.618	.154	.030	.061	.450	.682	.251	.347	.366	.713
Taylor Walls	3.8	.551	.143	.028	.045	.419	.878	.227	.317	.326	.643

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections