Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

0.5% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

42.3%

Tampa Bay Rays win

57.7%

Fair line (home)

-136

Proj. total

8.56

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.04)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.52)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.56

Over

54.1%

Under

45.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	42.3%	+134	+136
Tampa Bay Rays	57.7%	-146	-136

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tyler O'Neill	4.7	.567	.148	.009	.218	.489	1.353	.226	.315	.423	.738
Pete Alonso	4.6	.557	.158	.005	.258	.465	1.095	.242	.332	.475	.807
Jackson Holliday	4.5	.611	.148	.028	.121	.476	1.056	.229	.317	.372	.689
Coby Mayo	4.4	.501	.167	.010	.179	.376	1.292	.217	.292	.399	.691
Gunnar Henderson	4.3	.585	.166	.024	.173	.416	.926	.248	.329	.441	.770
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.546	.161	.015	.172	.179	1.206	.227	.268	.406	.675
Christian Franklin	4.1	.533	.134	.013	.071	.433	1.163	.210	.304	.314	.619
Leody Taveras	4.0	.571	.121	.035	.086	.281	.916	.223	.282	.346	.628
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.471	.136	.004	.100	.363	1.088	.207	.290	.336	.626

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.908	.209	.011	.149	.503	.724	.309	.390	.473	.863
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.743	.183	.005	.141	.567	1.166	.271	.371	.427	.798
Junior Caminero	4.5	.675	.184	.006	.265	.447	.868	.282	.358	.530	.888
Liam Hicks	4.4	.774	.156	.015	.102	.500	.603	.276	.370	.406	.776
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.983	.132	.062	.012	.266	.478	.299	.345	.372	.716
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.621	.187	.024	.101	.316	.897	.245	.310	.387	.697
Cedric Mullins	4.0	.563	.153	.019	.119	.392	.930	.236	.316	.388	.704
Richie Palacios	3.9	.622	.147	.026	.056	.466	.780	.249	.345	.356	.701
Taylor Walls	3.8	.530	.136	.027	.041	.438	.986	.219	.313	.312	.625

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections