Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Freddy Peralta · 72°F

0.4% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles win

43.6%

Tampa Bay Rays win

56.4%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

8.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.07)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.44)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.5

Over

53.8%

Under

46.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	43.6%	+123	+129
Tampa Bay Rays	56.4%	-133	-129

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	4.7	.626	.149	.029	.127	.545	1.187	.225	.321	.367	.688
Pete Alonso	4.6	.533	.170	.005	.238	.496	1.164	.235	.331	.456	.787
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.606	.176	.029	.174	.473	1.029	.247	.333	.437	.771
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.4	.561	.158	.018	.180	.218	1.355	.222	.268	.399	.667
Dylan Beavers	4.3	.565	.159	.013	.117	.546	1.058	.229	.332	.373	.705
Leody Taveras	4.2	.609	.125	.042	.090	.339	1.023	.226	.292	.351	.643
Colton Cowser	4.1	.483	.135	.006	.153	.433	1.314	.216	.308	.385	.694
Coby Mayo	4.0	.435	.144	.010	.164	.369	1.216	.212	.294	.397	.691
Yohel Pozo	3.8	.610	.165	.008	.114	.131	.597	.243	.274	.385	.659

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.897	.209	.013	.151	.467	.627	.308	.384	.475	.859
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.755	.187	.004	.154	.540	1.004	.280	.374	.448	.822
Junior Caminero	4.4	.698	.181	.005	.290	.413	.752	.295	.364	.561	.925
Ryan Vilade	4.3	.697	.184	.023	.095	.371	.947	.256	.326	.387	.714
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.994	.133	.056	.014	.248	.382	.303	.347	.377	.723
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.627	.185	.029	.113	.300	.789	.253	.314	.406	.720
Jorge Mateo	4.0	.626	.187	.012	.089	.249	.991	.246	.296	.374	.670
Nick Fortes	3.9	.685	.172	.008	.082	.205	.552	.262	.312	.382	.694
Taylor Walls	3.8	.528	.145	.021	.043	.386	.854	.220	.305	.315	.620

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections