Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Shane McClanahan · 72°F

2.0% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles win

37.8%

Tampa Bay Rays win

62.2%

Fair line (home)

-164

Proj. total

8.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.85)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.78)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.64

Over

55.4%

Under

44.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	37.8%	+146	+164
Tampa Bay Rays	62.2%	-160	-164

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Tyler O'Neill	4.7	.560	.149	.009	.190	.470	1.417	.219	.304	.396	.700
Pete Alonso	4.5	.562	.167	.004	.233	.443	1.131	.239	.323	.455	.779
Jackson Holliday	4.4	.600	.148	.027	.114	.460	1.111	.225	.311	.364	.675
Coby Mayo	4.3	.493	.166	.009	.176	.368	1.355	.215	.288	.396	.684
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.584	.173	.029	.163	.407	.939	.250	.328	.440	.768
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.1	.548	.159	.016	.156	.170	1.243	.224	.263	.391	.654
Jeremiah Jackson	4.0	.599	.169	.009	.123	.164	.957	.235	.271	.380	.651
Carlos Narváez	3.9	.481	.145	.004	.092	.350	1.161	.206	.284	.328	.612
Christian Franklin	3.8	.488	.119	.018	.061	.395	1.114	.205	.296	.306	.601

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.928	.207	.012	.173	.461	.617	.318	.391	.498	.889
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.787	.199	.004	.163	.507	1.019	.288	.375	.462	.838
Junior Caminero	4.5	.688	.188	.004	.305	.387	.766	.294	.358	.569	.927
Liam Hicks	4.3	.790	.156	.017	.109	.454	.525	.280	.365	.415	.780
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.011	.133	.059	.016	.223	.412	.304	.343	.379	.721
Ryan Vilade	4.1	.665	.178	.021	.106	.341	.934	.259	.326	.402	.728
Cedric Mullins	4.0	.578	.164	.021	.132	.366	.822	.247	.321	.412	.733
Richie Palacios	3.9	.640	.158	.028	.066	.436	.688	.260	.348	.379	.727
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.584	.190	.013	.096	.222	.945	.248	.296	.390	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections