Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · José Soriano vs Nick Martinez · 72°F

2.6% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

47.5%

Tampa Bay Rays win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

8.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.39)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.42)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.82

Over

56.8%

Under

43.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	47.5%	+118	+110
Tampa Bay Rays	52.4%	-128	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.0	4.3	5.2	2.7	2.4
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.4	3.2	6.0	1.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

José Soriano4+ 61%6+ 28%8+ 9%

Nick Martinez4+ 41%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.841	.167	.016	.046	.492	1.010	.250	.331	.329	.660
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.885	.213	.018	.108	.313	.633	.282	.336	.414	.750
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.783	.173	.006	.143	.399	.494	.267	.337	.416	.752
George Springer	4.5	.676	.169	.013	.192	.384	.738	.260	.331	.452	.782
Jesús Sánchez	4.4	.673	.198	.012	.170	.296	.878	.261	.317	.443	.759
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.590	.166	.005	.222	.307	.855	.252	.314	.469	.783
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.686	.169	.016	.100	.185	.656	.251	.299	.381	.680
Ernie Clement	4.0	.747	.202	.015	.080	.152	.328	.271	.303	.393	.696
Josh Smith	3.9	.621	.156	.017	.090	.319	.657	.251	.324	.381	.705

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chandler Simpson	4.7	1.092	.147	.068	.011	.323	.503	.300	.351	.372	.723
Junior Caminero	4.6	.684	.185	.006	.228	.487	.899	.269	.351	.484	.836
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.733	.180	.006	.120	.589	1.113	.271	.378	.415	.792
Yandy Díaz	4.4	.821	.196	.010	.113	.517	.663	.298	.390	.443	.833
Liam Hicks	4.3	.748	.153	.017	.080	.528	.577	.271	.373	.387	.760
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.620	.174	.015	.091	.396	.965	.239	.317	.366	.682
Cedric Mullins	4.1	.560	.153	.020	.095	.422	.912	.230	.317	.363	.680
Richie Palacios	4.0	.613	.148	.027	.046	.502	.749	.245	.349	.345	.694
Taylor Walls	3.9	.521	.135	.025	.032	.463	.969	.212	.312	.296	.608

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections